[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks spent most of the day on the defensive as bond yields resumed their climb and oil prices pushed higher.
Yesterday’s Treasury buyback announcement briefly calmed the bond market, but that optimism faded quickly, with long-term yields giving back those gains and reminding investors that deficits and borrowing needs remain front and center.
Adding to the pressure, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions helped lift crude prices, while Walmart’s disappointing outlook weighed on sentiment. The result was another red close for the major indexes.
The brighter story was outside of equities.
Gold extended its breakout above its 200-day moving average and climbed past $4,500, silver added a solid 2.75%, and Bitcoin stole the show with a jump of more than 6% toward $73,000.
Markets may be starting to price in the possibility that more debt, more spending, and eventually more inflation are still ahead.
As for yesterday’s much-hyped Treasury buyback boost, it appears the bond market’s verdict was short and sweet: “Nice try, what’s next?“
So, are gold and Bitcoin simply enjoying a good week, or are they sending us an early warning about the inflation story still to come?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Higher bond yields and firmer oil prices kept the major indexes pinned below the flat line all day, with the bears comfortably riding shotgun from the opening bell to the close.
Not everything got the memo, though. Precious metals and Bitcoin headed the other way, seemingly catching a whiff of inflation around the corner before the rest of the market noticed.
Our TTIs didn’t put up much of a fight either, but to their credit, they retreated far more gracefully than the major indexes.
In a market full of sprinters heading downhill, they chose a more dignified jog.
This is how we closed 08/20/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.43% above its M/A (prior close +10.32%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.71% above its M/A (prior close +7.91%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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