[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks managed to grind higher today, with the S&P 500 notching another intraday record as investors welcomed a softer-than-expected inflation backdrop.
July producer prices came in cooler than forecast, reinforcing the idea that inflation pressures aren’t accelerating, even if the Fed isn’t quite ready to declare victory.
The market’s reaction was telling: bond yields initially moved lower, oil prices slid before recovering, and equities kept their footing.
By the close, the Nasdaq was again the leadership group, while the Dow trailed. Interestingly, the Mag 7 still couldn’t outshine the other 493 names in the S&P 500, a reminder that this rally has broadened beyond the usual AI superstars.
Elsewhere, the dollar finished mostly unchanged, gold slipped below $4,400, and Bitcoin found buyers around the $62,000 level after another shaky session.
As for the AI boom, today’s debate centered on whether investors are focusing on the right risks. History shows that market narratives often look much clearer in hindsight than they do in real time.
So, with inflation allegedly behaving, the broad market holding up, and leadership continuing to expand, is the next leg higher going to come from the forgotten stocks rather than the market’s biggest celebrities?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market had a constructive feel right from the opening bell, with the Nasdaq setting the pace and never really looking back.
The Dow spent most of the day playing catch-up, while the metals sector took a well-earned breather after its recent sprint higher. Even markets know you can’t run a marathon at a full sprint forever.
Our TTIs confirmed the positive backdrop, with both models advancing and the domestic model showing the stronger momentum.
All in all, the bullish tone remained firmly intact, and the path of least resistance continued to point higher.
This is how we closed 08/13/2026:
Domestic TTI: +11.18% above its M/A (prior close +10.36%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.00% above its M/A (prior close +8.57%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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