[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks came out of the gate with plenty of energy today, pushing the S&P 500 to another intraday record as investors cheered strong earnings and growing optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen sooner rather than later.
By the closing bell, however, much of that enthusiasm had cooled. The Dow held on to most of its gains, while the Nasdaq slipped into the red as the Mag 7 took a breather and the broader market quietly carried the load.
The headline grabbers weren’t stocks anyway. Gold and silver stole the spotlight, both surging more than 4%, while the dollar weakened and Bitcoin marched closer to $65,000. It was one of those days when hard assets reminded everyone they’re still very much in the game.
Investors largely shrugged off a softer-than-expected ADP jobs report and instead focused on earnings, commodity moves, and signs that market leadership may be broadening beyond big tech.
The big question now: after six months of moving sideways to lower, have precious metals finally regained their footing and begun the next bull market advance?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
After a strong opening bounce, the market lost a little steam as the day wore on.
The Dow managed to hold on to most of its gains, while the S&P 500 finished essentially flat and the Nasdaq slipped into negative territory, weighed down by some profit-taking in chip stocks.
The real action was in the metals market, where gold and silver absolutely stole the show, each rallying more than 4%. Apparently, traders decided shiny objects were today’s must-have accessory.
As for our TTIs, it was a mixed bag. The international model posted a gain, while the domestic model gave back a little ground.
Nothing dramatic, just the market’s way of reminding us that not everything moves in lockstep.
This is how we closed 08/05/2026:
Domestic TTI: +10.17% above its M/A (prior close +10.42%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.83% above its M/A (prior close +8.60%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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