ETF Tracker StatSheet
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JULY’S FINAL LESSON: EARNINGS IMPRESS, BONDS STILL MATTER
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
If we were chatting over coffee this morning, I’d say the market’s main message was simple: earnings are still driving the bus, but interest rates keep grabbing the steering wheel.
Stocks spent Friday bouncing between gains and losses as investors weighed strong results from the tech heavyweights against another surge in bond yields.
Apple’s earnings were solid, but not solid enough for Wall Street’s liking, sending the stock sharply lower. Amazon and Microsoft, on the other hand, reminded investors why AI remains the market’s favorite story, helping fuel a late-session recovery.
The bigger development, however, may have been the bond market. Long-term Treasury yields climbed to levels not seen since 2007, reflecting growing concerns that inflation may prove more stubborn than hoped. As one Fed official essentially admitted, there is no magic wand. Traders seem to be taking him at his word.
Looking back, July was a month many investors won’t miss. The Nasdaq suffered its worst July in more than two decades, bond yields posted their biggest July jump since 2005, and oil surged more than 20%, its strongest July in over 30 years.
Meanwhile, gold and Bitcoin spent much of the month running in place, and central banks added plenty of uncertainty while offering very few clear answers.
In the end, July was a reminder that markets can change their obsession faster than a toddler picks a favorite toy. One day it’s AI, the next it’s inflation, then rates, oil, or the economy.
The question now is whether August brings some clarity… or just a fresh set of headlines to worry about. It’s wide open as to what Mr. Market will be obsessing over next month.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The last trading day of the month gave us another ride on Mr. Market’s roller coaster.
Stocks opened in the green, slipped into the red, and then, right around late morning, buyers showed up with their shopping carts and changed the mood for good.
By the closing bell, the major indexes had not only recovered but finished comfortably higher.
While July was still a challenging month overall, the S&P 500 managed to claw its way back to roughly break-even territory, proving once again that resilience is a market specialty.
Our TTIs finished the day mixed. The international model gained a little ground, while the domestic model gave back a modest amount.
More importantly, both closed out the month firmly above their respective trend lines, keeping the broader bullish picture intact.
So, despite a few bumps, twists, and turns along the way, the bulls still hold the map heading into August.
This is how we closed 07/31/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.81% above its M/A (prior close +8.40%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.12% above its M/A (prior close +6.72%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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