- Moving the market
The S&P 500 briefly touched a fresh record high early in the session, riding the momentum of semiconductor stocks extending their longest winning streak on record.
That early strength didn’t fully carry through the day, though, as the broader market turned mixed, and traders weighed the latest developments out of the Middle East.
Geopolitics stayed front and center after President Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” laying mines in the Strait, stressing there should be “no hesitation” in a Truth Social post.
The comments followed earlier remarks this week in which Trump said extending the ceasefire made sense given Iran’s government was “seriously fractured.” The mixed messaging kept investors cautious.
Earnings added another layer of volatility. IBM slid 8% and ServiceNow dropped 17% after their reports disappointed investors. On the flip side, United Rentals stole the spotlight, surging 20% and earning the title of best performer in the S&P 500 for the day.
At this stage, stocks appear to be searching for stable footing after an impressive rebound off the March lows.
Markets seem less reactive to every Iran‑related headline and more focused on earnings, fundamentals, and the path of Federal Reserve policy. Still, there’s only so long investors can tune out geopolitical risks before they start to matter again.
By the close, there were few clear winners. Value stocks were the lone bright spot, while the metals complex retreated, and Bitcoin slipped back from the $79,000 level.
Adding to the uncertainty, rumors that Iran’s parliamentary speaker resigned from the negotiating team sparked fears that the Revolutionary Guard may be tightening its grip. Disarray best describes the situation—and markets didn’t love it.
So, the question remains: are investors right to look past the headlines, or is geopolitics about to force its way back into the driver’s seat?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
After a strong open that saw the S&P 500 notch a fresh record, the tone shifted as the session wore on.
Weak software sales and a jump in oil prices cooled enthusiasm, while ongoing uncertainty around the trajectory of the Iran conflict hung over the market.
The pullback was broad‑based but relatively shallow. Still, metals and Bitcoin joined equities on the downside, leaving value stocks as the lone group to finish in the green.
Our TTIs essentially went nowhere, reinforcing the idea that this move looks more like a pause than a trend change. The bigger picture remains intact, with markets simply taking a breather after recent gains.
This is how we closed 04/23/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.96% above its M/A (prior close +5.97%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.54% above its M/A (prior close +7.54%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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