- Moving the market
The major indexes opened higher, building on last week’s gains as oil prices eased back and traders weighed the chances that the U.S.-Iran war could be wrapping up soon.
Reports suggested the U.S., Iran, and some regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire that might lead to a permanent deal, though the odds of getting even a partial agreement before Tuesday’s deadline look slim.
Another idea floating around involves a plan put together by Pakistan that could trigger an immediate ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as Monday.
Midday, the indexes pulled back toward flat, but Trump’s comment that “he can’t talk about a cease-fire” with Iran actually sparked fresh bullish sentiment and helped push us to another green close.
Besides the war news, the “stagflation” scenario crept back into focus—growth is moving sideways while inflation ticks higher.
Bond yields were little changed, the dollar opened stronger then faded, and gold traded in a tight range to finish basically flat.
The real standout was Bitcoin, which surged and recaptured the $70K level, where it’s holding for now.
Despite all the uncertainty, traders are also keeping an eye on seasonals, which historically favor April.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The day started with a nice early bounce, but it ran out of steam by midday.
Then Trump dropped some comments about a potential ceasefire (which he said he couldn’t talk about in detail), and that was enough to ignite fresh bullish sentiment.
The major indexes caught a second wind and closed near their session highs—solid green day overall.
Gold mostly treaded water, while silver advanced moderately and added a bit of shine.
Our TTIs edged higher too, with the domestic one showing a stronger rebound than its international counterpart.
This is how we closed 04/06/2026:
Domestic TTI: +1.99% above its M/A (prior close +1.55%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.53% above its M/A (prior close +4.17%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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