ETF Tracker StatSheet
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STOCKS KEEP CLIMBING DESPITE GROWING CROSSCURRENTS
- Moving the market
Stocks finished higher, with broad gains across the board as Treasury yields finally eased a bit. That pullback in rates helped steady the market and set Wall Street up for a solid winning week—despite all the volatility along the way.
A big part of the market’s resilience still comes down to strong Q1 earnings, with a little help from cooling bond yields.
Earlier in the week, though, those same yields were causing plenty of headaches. The 30-year Treasury briefly hit its highest level since before the financial crisis, while the 10-year climbed to a more than one-year high.
Much of that move was driven by worries that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could keep oil prices elevated and inflation sticky.
By Friday, oil had backed off its highs and traded mostly flat, as traders held out hope that tensions could eventually ease. Even with all the back-and-forth headlines, the major indexes are closing the week with solid gains.
Looking at the bigger picture, it was an interesting mix: stocks notched their eighth straight weekly gain, oil moved lower overall, and short-term yields climbed. At the same time, consumer sentiment sank to record lows, while the dollar and gold ended the week roughly unchanged. Copper, on the other hand, had a strong showing.
Under the surface, leadership told its own story. The Dow and Small Caps led the way, with the latter getting an extra boost from a three-day short squeeze. Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 lagged noticeably, underperforming the broader S&P 493.
Bitcoin had a choppy week, bouncing around the $77K level, but held up fairly well considering ongoing ETF outflows.
So, even with stocks continuing to grind higher, there’s a bit of a tug-of-war building between rising yields, softening consumer sentiment, and shifting oil prices.
The big question is: which of these forces ends up driving the next major move in the market?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes shrugged off any negative news and kept pushing higher, as bullish sentiment carried stocks to a solid green finish for the week.
In commodities, metals were mostly flat and didn’t do much, although copper stood out with a strong performance.
Bitcoin was a bit choppy, bouncing around before settling near the lower end of its recent range.
Our TTIs held up nicely in the positive environment, posting gains both on the day and for the week, staying firmly in step with the overall market strength.
This is how we closed 05/22/2026:
Domestic TTI: +6.68% above its M/A (prior close +5.98%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.07% above its M/A (prior close +9.84%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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