- Moving the market
Stocks bounced back today, helped by a strong rebound in Bitcoin and a solid move higher in big tech, as traders tried to shake off December’s shaky start.
The major indexes spent most of the day climbing, helped by renewed appetite for growth and AI names after Monday’s stumble.
Bitcoin surged throughout the session, wiping out the prior day’s losses and reinforcing its recent pattern of trading in step with rising odds of a December Fed rate cut.
AI-linked tech also did its part: Oracle reversed the previous session’s slide, Nvidia added nearly 2%, and AI infrastructure names like Credo Technology and Astera Labs ripped higher, with Credo jumping about 17% to a record and Astera tacking on roughly 6%.
Even so, this bounce comes after the major U.S. indexes snapped five-day win streaks on Monday, as persistent worries about sticky inflation, stretched valuations, and uncertain AI payoffs have kept a lid on enthusiasm.
Rate expectations remain a key driver: markets now see an almost 90%-plus chance of a cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, a big jump from mid-November, giving bulls a narrative to lean on even as the macro picture looks mixed.
Around the edges, bond yields eased a bit, the dollar dipped late in the day, and precious metals took a pause without breaking their uptrends.
Gold held above the 4,200 level, and silver, after being hit early, clawed back to finish above 58—keeping the “metals as quiet leaders” story intact for now.
With only a handful of data releases due tomorrow, and some of them fairly stale, the near-term tape may stay more focused on Fed odds, AI sentiment, and crypto’s mood swings than on the economic calendar.
With rate-cut hopes firming, AI names heating back up, and Bitcoin acting like a high-beta play on Fed expectations, the key question now is whether this rebound can build into a more durable December run—or if one more bout of anxiety will knock the rally off course again.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
We opened with some hopeful green, trying to claw back yesterday’s beatdown, but the bounce never really got legs.
By the close it was more of a “meh” day than a real comeback. Tech (and mostly the usual big names) did the heavy lifting again, while the rest of the market basically yawned and lagged.
That narrow action meant our TTIs pretty much just chilled. The domestic one went nowhere, and only the international TTI managed to sneak out a tiny little win.
This is how we closed 12/02/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.59% above its M/A (prior close +5.69%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.34% above its M/A (prior close +9.14%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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