(Incorrect Gold print)
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]- Moving the market
Stocks opened with a slight uptick as investors chewed over new earnings reports and waited for the Fed’s interest rate decision.
Even a stronger-than-expected GDP print—showing the U.S. economy growing at a 3% clip last quarter, well above forecasts—wasn’t enough to distract Wall Street from the main events: rates, Fed policy, and ongoing earnings news.
Most investors were content to sit tight before the Fed announcement, and with futures putting the odds of any rate move at just 2%, nobody expected major fireworks.
Despite some political pressure, Fed Chair Jerome Powell continued to signal he’s in no rush to make changes, so traders are betting the next policy move won’t come until September at the earliest.
That wait-and-see vibe followed a down day for the markets, as uncertainty over China trade talks and the possible extension of tariff pauses weighed on stocks.
As expected, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged. But Powell’s comments, coupled with a dovish statement highlighting “moderating” growth, whipped up some wild swings on Wall Street. By the close, two of the three major indexes were in the red while the Nasdaq managed to just barely hang on to a gain.
Elsewhere, the dollar and bond yields shot higher after the Fed, dragging gold down to one-month lows. Oil prices rallied on the back of new threats from the White House to buyers of Russian oil, and Bitcoin slipped before bouncing at around $116,000.
But the real drama unfolded in the copper market: after a strong 15% run this month, copper reversed sharply, giving up its gains after the White House slapped a hefty 50% tariff on all semi-finished copper imports starting August 1.
With so many moving parts, from Fed signals to fresh tariffs and trade turbulence, today’s market volatility could just be the start of a wild finish to the week.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
As expected, Fed Chair Powell kept interest rates steady, but his comments left everyone scratching their heads and sent the market on a wild ride.
Our TTIs ended up following the same pattern, closing lower along with the market.
This is how we closed 07/30/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.09% above its M/A (prior close +5.77%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.06% above its M/A (prior close +8.75%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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