- Moving the market
Stocks kicked things off on a strong note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving higher early, powered once again by tech.
A big part of the optimism seemed tied to growing expectations that the U.S. and Iran could be inching toward some kind of deal to wind down tensions.
One of the big winners was Micron, which surged a massive 15% after analysts turned increasingly bullish. UBS even floated the idea of more than 100% upside, pointing to long-term agreements as a key driver. Not bad for a stock that started last week on shaky ground during the broader sell-off in memory chip names.
On the geopolitical front, things remain a bit of a mixed signal. President Trump said talks with Iran are “proceeding nicely,” but also made it clear the U.S. is ready to take action if things fall apart.
At the same time, the U.S. confirmed it carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile sites and boats involved in mine activity—though officials emphasized restraint amid the ongoing ceasefire.
Right now, markets seem to be leaning toward the idea that a détente could be announced in the coming days. That raises the big question: how much of this good news is already baked into prices?
By the close, it was a risk-on vibe. Small caps and the Nasdaq led the charge, while the Dow lagged.
Lower rate-hike expectations helped push bond yields down, the dollar bounced a bit, and commodities were mixed—gold gave back some of yesterday’s gains. Bitcoin had a wild ride too, briefly touching $78K before sliding back toward $75.5K.
The underlying hope is that progress on the U.S.-Iran front could ease energy prices, cool inflation expectations, and keep pressure off yields—but for now, traders seem to be cautiously optimistic.
So, I am pondering: Are markets getting ahead of themselves, or is there still more upside if a deal actually comes through?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Stocks came out of the gate strong, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallying early and finishing the day at new record highs, thanks to continued strength in tech.
Precious metals were a mixed bag—gold mostly drifted sideways, while silver and copper managed to post small gains. One standout was the Value ETF (VLUE), which surged nearly 4% in an impressive move.
Our TTIs didn’t quite sync up today. The international one stayed flat, while the domestic TTI had a decent showing, edging up 0.5%.
This is how we closed 05/26/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.22% above its M/A (prior close +6.68%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.02% above its M/A (prior close +10.07%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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