ETF Tracker StatSheet
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GOLD HITS RECORD HIGH AMID MIDDLE EAST TURMOIL
- Moving the market
The markets opened with a thud today after Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Iran, sending shockwaves through global markets and pushing crude oil prices up a sharp 8%.
The sudden escalation added yet another layer of uncertainty to an already tense geopolitical landscape.
Israel’s defense minister declared a special state of emergency, while U.S. officials were quick to distance themselves, confirming no involvement in the strikes. The ripple effects were immediate—energy prices surged, inflation fears reignited, and gold jumped as investors rushed to safety.
President Trump is once again urging Iran to return to the negotiating table for a nuclear deal, after the last attempt two months ago fizzled out.
On a brighter note, consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, climbing to 60.5 in June—well above expectations and marking a nearly 16% jump from the previous month.
Still, it was a rough day for stock indexes. The S&P 500 lost its grip on the 6,000 level, and even the Mag7 and heavily shorted names couldn’t stop the bleeding.
Bond yields, which had been sliding all week, bounced back after Iran’s retaliation. The dollar ended the week slightly higher, while Bitcoin—often seen as a safe haven—closed lower.
And gold? It stole the spotlight, gaining 1.48% on the day and notching a record closing high. In times like these, it’s hard to argue against its reputation as a crisis-proof asset.
With so many moving parts—from oil to inflation to global conflict—as trend followers, we’re built for moments like this—riding the waves, not fighting them.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Tensions between Israel and Iran are heating up, and the markets definitely felt the pressure. Major indexes took a hit, sliding firmly into the red. In uncertain times like these, gold once again proved its worth, holding up well as a “safe haven.”
Our TTIs followed the broader market’s lead and gave back some of their recent gains. That said, we’re still maintaining a bullish outlook moving forward.
This is how we closed 06/13/2025:
Domestic TTI: +0.72% above its M/A (prior close +2.02%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.29% above its M/A (prior close +7.72%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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