- Moving the market
Equities began the week sharply lower due to ongoing uncertainty in global trade talks. Adding to the market’s woes was President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell, who remains committed to high interest rate policies.
Some traders view Trump’s attacks as a threat to the Fed’s independence, while others criticize his delayed responses, such as calling inflation “transitory.”
Currently, we are witnessing a simultaneous decline in stocks, the dollar, and US Treasuries, which has primarily benefited gold. Bitcoin also appears poised for its next major move higher.
Given the lack of clarity in the market, my advisory practice is focusing on assets that clearly demonstrate bullish tendencies, while observing the equity bear market from the sidelines.
The Mag7 sector saw significant declines, led by tech giants Tesla (-6%) and Nvidia (-5%), with Amazon, AMD, and Meta experiencing smaller losses.
Bond yields edged higher, the dollar plunged, and China increased its gold purchases, driving the precious metal up by over 3% to a record high. US macroeconomic data weakened, with the Leading Indicator falling to a 9-year low, intensifying calls for rate cuts.
Bitcoin’s rally and decoupling from tech stocks may signal the resumption of its bullish trend, aligning with global liquidity movements.
2. Current “Sell” Cycle (effective 4/4/25)
Our domestic Buy cycle, which began on November 21, 2023, ended on April 3, 2025. The market reacted negatively to Trump’s tariff policy, causing major indexes and the broader market to drop sharply.
This confirmed the bearish trend that had been pushing our domestic TTI (Trend Tracking Index) below its trend line since March 10, 2025, but it wasn’t enough to end the Buy cycle until now. Consequently, we have exited the domestic market.
Meanwhile, our International TTI dropped sharply on April 4, 2025, generating a “Sell” signal. Since we did not have any exposure in international markets, we were not affected.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes opened the session significantly lower, reflecting a lack of bullish sentiment. Although there was a brief recovery that lifted equities from their lowest points, the bears ultimately prevailed.
Our TTIs also declined and are now firmly entrenched in bear market territory.
This is how we closed 04/21/2025:
Domestic TTI: -8.87% below its M/A (prior close -7.00%)—Sell signal effective 4/4/25.
International TTI: -2.37% below its M/A (prior close -1.82%)—Sell signal effective 4/7/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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