ETF Tracker StatSheet
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EQUITIES SLIP AMID U.S.-CHINA TRADE TALK ANXIETY
- Moving the market
With the much-anticipated trade talks between the U.S. and China scheduled for this weekend, equities slipped in early trading as anxiety prevailed on Wall Street.
There is hope that following the U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, other major nations will quickly establish similar frameworks. However, the 10% tariff rate on the U.K. appears to be the new global baseline, although trade policy uncertainty continued to decline this week.
President Trump mentioned that an “80% tariff on China seems right,” which would be a significant de-escalation from the original 145%. It remains unclear if these tariffs could be reduced further or if they will be temporary or long-term.
The major indexes ended the day with only minor changes. Rate-cut expectations tumbled, and bond yields rose over the week. The dollar gained modestly but remained within its recent trading range.
Crude oil found support at 4-week lows and surged, while Bitcoin broke back above $100k for the first time in three months, driven by strong ETF inflows. Gold also climbed but retreated from its highs, with the $3,300 level providing support.
Looking ahead, the outcome of the U.S.-China trade negotiations this weekend, along with economic data on CPI, PPI, retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts, will contribute to a week filled with uncertainty and anxiety.
Will a bullish undertone prevail?
2. Current domestic “Sell” Cycle (effective 4/4/25); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic Buy cycle, which started on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025. The market responded negatively to Trump’s tariff policy, leading to a sharp decline in major indexes and the broader market.
On April 4, 2025, our International Trend Tracking Indicator (TTI) also dropped significantly, triggering a “Sell” signal. However, it has since rebounded to a level that has generated a new “Buy” signal, effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The session began on a positive note, but bullish sentiment faded as the day progressed. The major indexes ended the day nearly unchanged due to concerns over the upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, which dampened investor enthusiasm.
Our TTIs showed minimal change, but the international TTI demonstrated greater resilience.
This is how we closed 05/09/2025:
Domestic TTI: -1.55% below its M/A (prior close -1.41%)—Sell signal effective 4/4/25.
International TTI: +3.24% above its M/A (prior close +3.13%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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