- Moving the market
Nervousness and uncertainty dominated Wall Street early on, with equities selling off ahead of Trump’s tariff rollout on April 2nd.
However, bullish sentiment returned by midday, allowing the major indexes to recover and close in the green, except for the Nasdaq, which remained slightly in the red.
The tariff announcement included reciprocal duties targeting countries that impose tariffs on US imports, as well as a broad 25% levy on all cars not made in the US. Weekend news did little to calm concerns; in fact, the WSJ reported that Trump had urged his advisors to adopt a more aggressive stance.
The tech sector was hit hardest early on, with major players like Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla retreating and failing to recapture last year’s bullish trend. Nvidia is down about 31% from its 52-week high.
For the quarter, US stocks experienced their worst performance compared to the rest of the world in 23 years, as noted by ZH. The Nasdaq was the biggest loser in March and Q1, tumbling over 11%, marking its worst start to a year since 2022.
Consequently, the Mega-cap sector has been down for six consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since the 2022 sell-off. The stagflation scenario was confirmed during Q1, with disappointing growth and surprising inflation.
Bond yields were lower for the quarter but reversed slightly in March. Rate-cut expectations fluctuated, ending with an expectation of three cuts. The dollar suffered its biggest decline, while Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average but remained above pre-election levels.
Gold was the standout performer, surging over 18% in Q1, its best start since 1986. Today, gold raced above $3,150, setting a record.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes rebounded from early losses to close in positive territory, except for the Nasdaq, which ended slightly lower.
Gold was the standout performer, gaining 1.34% and setting a record high.
Our TTIs also recovered, although the domestic TTI remains moderately below its long-term trend line.
This is how we closed 03/31/2025:
Domestic TTI: -1.15% below its M/A (prior close -1.96%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +2.84% above its M/A (prior close +3.44%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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