- Moving the market
The early market movements were characterized by aimless meandering with a slightly positive bias, but ultimately, the major indexes ended the day in the red.
This decline occurred despite a significant drop in bond yields, following a relentless rally that had pushed the 10-year yield above 4.3%. Today’s yield drop might indicate that traders are reducing risk by shifting from equities to bonds.
Nvidia continued its bullish surge, likely fueled by its upcoming addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel, which is being removed. Nvidia has soared over 170% year-to-date, while Intel has seen its value more than halved.
Although some polls show the Presidential race as deadlocked, the markets are more concerned with which party will control Congress. A divided House and Senate would result in a status quo, which traders favor, as it would prevent sweeping new spending plans or tax overhauls.
Later this week, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest rates. While there is a 96% chance of a 0.25% cut, most attention will be on Chairman Powell’s commentary following the meeting.
In today’s session, big tech stocks skidded, the dollar slipped, and gold remained stagnant. Bitcoin, after reaching record highs last week, headed lower, while crude oil found some upward momentum, erasing last week’s losses.
All eyes are now on tomorrow’s election.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Despite an initial bounce and a significant decline in bond yields, the major stock indexes were unable to sustain their positive momentum and ultimately closed the session in negative territory.
With the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election, there was no clear market direction, leading our TTIs to remain largely unchanged, reflecting minimal movement.
This is how we closed 11/04/2024:
Domestic TTI: +5.46% above its M/A (prior close +5.34%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +3.65% above its M/A (prior close +3.67%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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