Market Rally Continues Unabated: Is History Set To Repeat Itself?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the markets

The S&P 500 marked a moderate rise today, achieving its strongest first-quarter performance in five years and securing a fifth consecutive month of gains.

The stock market has seen an upward trend for 18 of the past 22 weeks, a streak not surpassed since 1989. While the broader market indexes hovered around the break-even point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained flat, and the Nasdaq traded slightly lower.

On a monthly scale, the S&P 500 saw a 3.1% increase. The Nasdaq and the Dow Jones followed suit, with gains of 1.8% and 2.1% for March, respectively. This marks the fifth successive month of gains for all three major indexes.

For the quarter, the S&P 500 surged 10.2%, its best first-quarter leap since 2019’s 13.1% rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 5.6%, its most robust first quarter since 2021, when it soared 7.4%. The Nasdaq concluded the quarter with a significant 9.1% rise.

The early 2024 rally propelled major U.S. stock benchmarks to record highs in March, with the S&P 500 reaching an unprecedented closing peak midweek.

Nvidia, last year’s market frontrunner, continued to fuel the quarter’s and month’s gains amid the ongoing artificial intelligence boom, with its stock soaring 82% for the quarter and 14% in March alone. Bitcoin also saw substantial increases, with gains of 68% for the quarter and 31% for the month.

Unemployment insurance initial filings for the week ending March 16 were reported at 210,000, marginally below the anticipated 211,000.

Despite the market closure on Good Friday, key economic data concerning personal income, consumer spending, and personal consumption expenditures will still be released.

The first quarter of 2024 was marked by a significant split between plummeting ‘soft’ surveys and ascending ‘hard’ data. The latter, coupled with persistent inflation and continuous market commentary, led to a dramatic reduction in rate-hike expectations for Q1.

The forecast for Federal Reserve cuts in 2024 plummeted from nearly seven to fewer than three. Nonetheless, this shift did not deter the upward trajectory of stocks, as the disparity between expectations and reality widened. The MAG 7 stocks alone added an astonishing $1.7 trillion to their market cap in Q1.

Bond yields increased, the dollar strengthened, and both Bitcoin and Gold reached new heights. Meanwhile, cocoa prices skyrocketed an incredible 135% year-to-date. Wholesale gasoline and retail fuel prices surged, particularly in March.

It’s been a remarkable quarter for investors, yet history teaches us caution. With such a dynamic market landscape, one must wonder:

Could we see a repeat of this performance?

2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.

If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Today, the market experienced a period of little change, with two of the three major indexes managing to secure a slight increase, concluding a robust quarter.

Our TTIs remained stable, both indicating a favorable view of the equity market as we closed out the month.

This is how we closed 3/28/2024:

Domestic TTI: +12.25% above its M/A (prior close +12.27%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

International TTI: +10.71% above its M/A (prior close +11.18%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.



Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.


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