- Moving the markets
Traders pushed stocks higher today, as they waited for the latest U.S. inflation and earnings reports.
The consumer price index (cpi) for December, due tomorrow, is expected to show a 3.2% annual increase. Traders will scan the reports for hints on when the fed will start lowering rates.
Those hopes have faded a bit lately, even though the chances are still above 60%. It seems like we had too much fun at the end of last year, when the Fed turned dovish, and now we have a headache, as some of its officials changed their tune.
That was the case today, when fed’s Williams said that they need to keep rates high ‘for some time’. That dragged the major indexes down and sent small caps into the red.
But a surprise approval of the bitcoin ETFs by the SEC gave the market a boost, and small caps recovered to break even. The MAG7 stocks kept their momentum, rising 5% in three days and turning positive for the year.
Bond yields edged higher, with prices swinging wildly during the day. The 10-year yield closed above 4% again. The dollar was steady, oil prices retreated from their highs, and gold fell to its support level.
Will the inflation report make or break the market tomorrow?
3. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes recovered from a sluggish opening and ended the day with gains. Traders were cautious about making big moves because of the upcoming inflation report.
Our TTIs mirrored the positive mood of the market and rose slightly.
This is how we closed 1/10/2024:
Domestic TTI: +7.62% above its M/A (prior close +7.43%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +6.62% above its M/A (prior close +6.47%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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