ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 3, 2018

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  1. Moving the markets

Solid earnings reports throughout the week proved to be good enough to shake off any market weakness caused by tariff uncertainties and a so-so July employment report. In terms of trade spats, China has threatened to retaliate with tariffs on $60 billion in US goods after Trump threw down the gauntlet yesterday. As I said, this will be a long movie…

The major indexes gained in a broad rebound with 10 of the S&P’s 11 sectors closing higher led by consumer staples (XLP). The Nasdaq managed to eke out a 1% gain for the week, after two weeks of losses, mainly due to Apple’s performance.

Taking center stage today was the jobs report, which disappointed when looking at the actual jobs gained (157k) vs. an expected 193k number. There were two specific reasons for this with Toys “R” US contributing some 31k jobs to the decline, while school vacation timing resulted in another 40k jobs lost, according SouthBay Research. Otherwise, there was broad consumer strength.

The risk to trade wars remains, but it appears that worst case scenarios have been priced in the markets for the time being. That also means, should the rhetoric slow down and a resolution with China is put on the negotiating table, you might see the markets take off and make a run for the old highs.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating regarding their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column. For more volatile sector ETFs, the trigger point is -10%.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) changed slightly, as the major indexes continued their march higher.

Here’s how we closed 08/03/2018:

Domestic TTI: +2.52% above its M/A (last close +2.59%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +0.50% above its M/A (last close +0.35%)—Buy signal effective 7/26/2018

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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