ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 20, 2018

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  1. Moving the markets

Equities ended the day and the week about unchanged while struggling for direction with the 3 major indexes clinging to the unchanged line. The S&P 500, for example, added only 1 point over the last 5 trading sessions but stayed on track for its 3rd straight weekly gain.

President Trump was at the center of two battles. First, there were the well-known and ongoing trade spats between the US and its varies counterparts, mainly China and the European Union, which left the markets at a high level of uncertainty.

This was followed by his displeasure of monetary policy accusing China and the EU of currency manipulation while adding that “Fed tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates – Really?

The immediate reaction was a drop in the US Dollar, which gave gold a reason to rally after its recent spanking. Stocks, which had attempted a morning rally, reversed and headed south with losses (consumer discretionary and energy) being offset by advances (consumer staples and financials).

Interest rates spiked and roundtripped by erasing all of yesterday’s gains in the 10-year bond, the yield of which rose 5 basis points to 2.89% still below its March multi-year high of 3.11%.

Next week, earnings season kicks into high gear, and we should find out if there is enough firepower to overcome the 2 flies in the ointment for further market advances, AKA trade tariffs and currency manipulation.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating regarding their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) were mixed with the Domestic one slipping and the International showing some upward momentum, but not enough to disrupt the current “Sell” cycle.

Here’s how we closed 07/20/2018:

Domestic TTI: +2.70% above its M/A (last close +2.83%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +0.61% above its M/A (last close +0.36%)—Sell signal effective 6/28/2018

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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