ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 16, 2018

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  1. Moving the markets

Not only did the S&P 500 break its losing streak on day 5, but the major indexes managed to eke out a green close for the session but ended down for the week.  As I mentioned daily, the potential trade wars, along with the game of musical chairs in the White House, were sufficient to hold the bulls in check. Today’s gains were small but broad with 9 of the 11 S&P sectors closing higher as Energy lead while Tech and Consumer Discretionaries lagged. The top economic headline had to be dismal housing sales data, of which not much was reported in MSM. More details here.

In ETF land, winners and losers for the day just about balanced each other out. Leading the pack were the Dividend ETF (DVY +0.65%) followed by MidCaps (SCHM +0.47%) and LargeCaps (SCHX +0.09%. On the downside, we saw International SmallCaps (SCHC -0.32%) along with Aerospace & Defense (ITA -0.23%) and Emerging Markets (SCHE -0.20%).

In the all important interest rate arena, the 10-year bond yield rose by 3 basis points to end the week at 2.85%, which is only 9 points away from its recent 4-year high of 2.94%. This level has recently been proven to be a point that, once reached, may spell trouble for equities again.

Since the beginning of March, we have been climbing in an ascending pattern (S&P 500), which has kept us on the plus side for the month despite this week’s sell-off. Should the tough trade-war talk headlines be softened or amicable solutions be found, I would expect the major indexes to resume their bullish pattern; at least on a short-term basis.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped as market direction was predominantly sideways.

Here’s how we closed 3/16/2018:

Domestic TTI: +3.26% above its M/A (last close +3.43%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +3.43% above its M/A (last close +3.57%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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