ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 23, 2018

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  1. Moving the markets

Finally, after the third attempt in as many days, the major indexes managed not only to hang on to an early rally but also to build on it by spiking late in the session and closing at the highs. This was enough to turn weekly losses into gains with the S&P adding +0.55% since last Friday’s close and recapturing its 50-day M/A, which it had been hugging recently.

The gains were broad with Semiconductors (SMH) adding +2.25%, while Aerospace & Defense (ITA) lagged with +0.62%. None of our holdings closed in the red.

The driver behind this bullish tone was the Fed’s report which, upon further review, suddenly offered few signs that a more aggressive monetary policy might not be adopted. That caused bond yields to retreat further, which was music for the bulls and up we went.

10-year yields had been up 7 weeks in a row, but today the 10-year retreated 4 basis points to close at 2.88%, which was just about where it ended last Friday. Should bond yields further back away from the critical 3% level, I could see the markets continue to advance and power on to new highs. The yield level will be the key that will make or break the future of equities.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) jumped as the major indexes surged today.

Here’s how we closed 2/23/2018:

Domestic TTI: +3.34% above its M/A (last close +2.85%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +4.19% above its M/A (last close +3.57%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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