ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 3, 2017

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  1. Moving the Markets

And the beat goes on. After a weak opening, the major indexes found some footing and continued their ascent into record territory. The rise was modest with an assist coming from Apple (AAPL) due to their strong report card, which was good enough to offset mixed economic data points including a mediocre October jobs report. Payrolls grew by 261k last month vs. expectations of 325k. The unemployment rate slipped from 4.2% to 4.1% despite news that 968k exited the labor force pushing the total number of people not in the labor force to 95.385 million—and that was supposed to have led to a lower employment rate? Go figure…

Giving the markets a big assist was the crushing of the VIX to 8.99 intra-day and to a record weekly closing low of 9.03. That helped the mid-day rebound, as we have become accustomed to throughout this year.

As a result, most of our ETF holdings gained, but there were some losers as well. Leading to the upside were Semiconductors (SMH) with +1.10% followed by LargeCaps (SCHX) with +0.31%. On the downside, we saw Aerospace & Defense (ITA) pulling back -0.67% after its huge gain yesterday, while the Emerging Markets (SCHE) surrendered -0.51%.

Interest rates dropped with the 10-year bond giving back 1 basis point to end the week at 2.34%. Crude oil gained and has now crawled back above its $55 level. After whip-sawing all week, the US Dollar (UUP) rebounded to end the past 5 trading days just about unchanged.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) were mixed with the Domestic one gaining and the International one slipping.

Here’s how we closed 11/3/2017:

Domestic TTI: +3.27% (last close +3.22%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +6.58% (last close +6.82%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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