ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 28, 2017

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  1. Moving the Markets

Much of the retail store apocalypse has been blamed on online sales, despite the fact that they only account for about 8% of total retail sales. Amazon was one of the alleged guilty parties contributing to the consumer discretionary skid. Well, this morning Amazon stock took a -3.5% dive confirming in a way that lack of consumer spending, due to worsening economic conditions, may very well be at the core of the issue in addition to Amazon’s 77% plunge in second quarter earnings, a result of jumping operating expenses across the board.

The early morning sell-off proved to be a tough one to reverse and, despite the VIX being crushed again (but it had its biggest weekly gain in 2 months), only the Dow managed to crawl above the unchanged line to set a new record close. The other two major indexes ended up slightly in the red with the S&P 500, to much shock and horror, actually losing 1 point for the week, after having chalked up 3 weekly gains in a row.

The FANG stocks had their first down week in the last 4; interest rates dropped today and also ended lower for the week. Not only did 2nd Qtr GDP miss at 2.6% vs. an expected 2.7%, but 1st Qtr GDP was revised down from 1.4% to 1.2%, which makes me curious as to what next month’s revision will bring.

The dollar index continued its dive losing another -0.62% for the day allowing gold to rally for the 3rd straight week and conquering its 50-, 100- and 200-day M/As to close at $1,275, its highest level since the beginning of June.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed south as the “moving sideways” was the theme not only of the day but the week as well.

Here’s how we closed 7/28/2017:

Domestic TTI: +3.29% (last close +3.60%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +8.06% (last close +8.63%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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