ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 29, 2016

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Market Commentary


Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of]

1. Moving the Markets

Can the GDP numbers get any worse? Today’s announcement was a real shocker as second quarter GDP clocked in at a miserable 1.0% against expectations of 2.6%. And, to add insult to injury, first quarter GDP was revised from an already poor 1.1% to just 0.8%. I can’t wait for next month’s revision.

On top of that, the economic numbers over the past few days showed nothing but negatives confirming that we are at best in “standstill” mode. Of course, in this new environment, a slowing economy, possibly on its way to a negative GDP within the next couple quarters or so, is a good thing for the stock market as it means that any feared Fed rate hikes in the near future are off the table for sure.

It confirms that we can count on more accommodation by the Fed, meaning stimulus and a reckless increase in debt, which will very likely continue to push equities further into bubble territory. I posted on several occasions, that artificial levitation of prices only goes so far before the entire house of cards comes crashing down. And when it does, you better have an exit strategy, because the longer stock prices and fundamentals disconnect, the worse the adjustment to fair value will be.

Next week, there are still a number of large companies set to report earnings, which could push the markets in either direction. Stocks remain quite reactionary to oil prices and the presidential campaign is tightening up and could have more and more impact on market movement.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


 The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) headed higher as the major indexes got support from hopes of more FED stimulus in the face of a continuously deteriorating GDP/economy.

Here’s how we closed 7/29/2016:

Domestic TTI: +3.13% (last Friday +2.85%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +3.50% (last Friday +2.39%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Have a great weekend.


Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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