European Concerns Return As Equity ETFs Fall

Ulli Market Review Contact

Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Although today wasn’t a big mover or shaker, the S&P 500 fell 0.57%. However, some European indices such as the DAX and FTSE gained over 1%. Meanwhile, the Euro barely budged against the dollar, remaining at $1.31/Euro.

The 10-year Treasury took another dip today, falling to a yield of 1.93%. Investors just don’t seem to have much consistency in their risk outlook given jumps and drops in the Treasury rate.

The primary focus right now is whether a suitable deal can be hashed out between the Greek government and its bondholders. Not only must they see on the same wavelength, but other Eurozone leaders as well as the ECB and the IMF are having their say. Trying to determine an appropriate haircut as well as a coupon rate for new bonds that is agreeable with all parties involved is going to be a big mess.

Read More

Sharp Upswing For Equity ETFs Despite Continued Negativity

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Despite a down opening for markets, Apple’s massive earnings caused quite a roar. The S&P 500 jumped 0.87% while the NASDAQ had a big gain of 1.14% as Apple roared ahead due to stellar earnings. However, the same optimism wasn’t echoed by Europe and Asia.

Furthermore, the Euro rose to $1.31 against the dollar while the 10-year Treasury fell down to 2.01%. Also, gold crossed above the $1,700 mark.

The Fed’s announcement of prolonged low rates appeared to be the big boost for equity ETFs. The possibility of QE3 might serve to establish an equity rally along the lines of QE1 and QE2. Yet, I only see this decision as a confirmation that the U.S. economic outlook is far from rosy, which might bring the bear market back into play at some point.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 1/24/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The markets picked up a little upward momentum since last week’s issue with the S&P 500 gaining about 1.5%. The seven ETF Model Portfolios increased in value as well.

All eyes continue to focus on Greece and whether a suitable haircut with bond holders can be worked out. Looks to me that Greece is finally playing hardball as the possibility of a default looms large.

Closer to home, traders will be focusing on the Fed and its FOMC rate decision, which is to be released tomorrow. No changes are expected.

Take a look at the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

Read More

Still No Breakout or Breakdown for Major Market ETFs

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Major market ETFs hovered near the zero mark once again as Greece remains in a deadlock with its creditors. The S&P 500 marginally dipped 0.10% while European indices were down as well.

Also, the Euro stood still at $1.30/Euro while the 10-year Treasury was virtually unchanged at 2.06%. Overall, the last couple weeks have presented an entry point to gain selective equity ETF exposure but markets haven’t moved significantly since.

While Eurozone risks still guide our low risk strategy, other investors seem to be regaining some of their appetite. The VIX has now broken under 20, showing that volatility has substantially subsided in the last month. Nevertheless, the grander picture of a strained global economy suggests market volatility can ramp back up.

Read More

Flat Performance for ETFs Amidst Greek Uncertainty

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

As we wait for a resolution between Greece and its bondholders, markets stood flat as the S&P 500 chimed in a meager 0.05%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury climbed to a yield of 2.07%, indicating that investors are less risk averse than they have been in recent weeks.

For the first time in over two weeks, the Euro has broken above the $1.30/Euro level. However, a negative outcome in Greece can quickly send the Euro back down.

As crunch time approaches in Greece, European leaders and the IMF among others are putting pressure on bondholders to accept a haircut. Lest we forget, even a 50% haircut would only reduce Greece’s debt-to-GDP to 120%, which is still unsustainable. A restructuring deal will only delay the likely inevitable default.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/20/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 264 (last week 214) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 45 ETFs (last week 33) have managed to move into in bullish territory after the recent run.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 603 (last week 448) above the line and 258 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report