7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 1/17/2012

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The S&P 500 barely budged since last week’s ETF Portfolio report, but all of our models increased in value due to their diversification.

The index is now approaching the psychologically important 1,300 level, which can act as a glass ceiling. It remains to be seen whether upward momentum is strong enough to pierce this resistance point in the face of Europe’s worsening debt crisis.

Some forecasters have called for a high of 1,330 to 1,350, but these things are simply someone’s opinion and not a guarantee. With Europe’s problems looming large, be sure to follow my recommended exit strategy at all times.

Take a look at the latest update:

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Major Market ETFs Return To Optimism

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Last week’s downgrades were forgotten as markets edged up today, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.36%. The optimism was seen across global indices while gold and oil prices pushed higher.

While global markets and commodities didn’t account for Europe’s troubles, the 10-year Treasury stood still at 1.85%. In the context of bond markets, investors continue to seek safer havens to store their assets, indicating perception of greater risk.

Elevated risk was seen in the form of the VIX, which rose 6.17% after a few weeks of relative inactivity. In essence, there’s still a lot of volatility in the market that can’t be ignored.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/13/2012

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Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 214 (last week 162) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 33 ETFs (last week 21) have managed to hang on in bullish territory after the recent volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 448 (last week 289) above the line and 413 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 1/15/2012

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In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 1/15/2012.

Continued upward momentum pushed the major indexes higher by less than 1%. With Friday’s downgrade of various European countries, it remains to be seen how the markets will react when Wall Street opens for business on Tuesday.

Since this was really no unexpected news, the main focus may remain on the overall European crisis and hopefully some positive offsetting news from the upcoming earnings season.

This week, we covered the following:

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S&P Downgrades Add Further Strain on Europe

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Standard and Poor’s didn’t shy away from issuing en masse downgrades to 9 countries in Europe after months of warnings. In other words, Europe is on thin ice and will have to act fast before its unified economic foundation breaks into fragmented pieces.

In this week’s video, managing director of sovereign ratings at S&P, John Chambers, presents a breakdown of the downgrade decisions as well as what’s at stake for Europe in the near future.

Doubts remain as to whether countries such as Italy, Portugal, and Spain can successfully implement austerity measures and reduce their fiscal deficits while financing their massive debt loads. Given these downgrades where Italy is now non-investment grade while Portugal has hit junk status, attracting investors will be difficult, which should increase borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, the efficacy of the EFSF is still uncertain as to whether it will help the Eurozone. Unfortunately, outside funding via the IMF and others is becoming more of a reality as the contagion worsens.

We’ll just have to see if markets react more negatively on Tuesday especially with talks in Greece breaking down.

Political Affiliation and Investment Returns – Is There A Link?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

With the Republican primary well under way, I’m sure you may be wondering which candidate will be able to revive the U.S. economy and push markets back into bull territory. Over the years, the debate between politics and financial growth has been contentious, questioning whether Democratic or Republican policies are more beneficial for the economy and financial markets.

As we sit at a crossroads wondering whether Obama’s Keynesian approach through fiscal stimulus or a non-interventionist approach á la Reagan from a new president will put the U.S. back on a growth trajectory, will it ultimately have any impact on our investment portfolios?

Perhaps the successes of one administration that result in bull markets are simply the product of the previous administration. Meanwhile, some contend that markets will perform better under Republican presidencies because they are perceived to institute economic policies deemed advantageous to markets.

To get an understanding of some of the theories out there, let’s look at some of the financial literature.

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