ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, July 13, 2012

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07122012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, July 13, 2012

US STOCKS BOUNCE BACK ON BANK EARNINGS; IYG RISES, VIXY CRASHES

US stocks rallied Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial snapping a six-day losing streak as banking stocks jumped following a stronger-than-anticipated earnings result from JP Morgan. The bank posted $5 billion in earnings in Q2 despite conceding $5.8 billion in trading losses so far this year through its “London Whale” trader. Let’s see what the effect will be next quarter.

US debts lost allure as 30-year Treasury bonds bounced off from near-record lows amid speculations global central banks initiate stimulus measures to prop up growth.  We will find out soon about that possibility which, during the last rumor, ended up being nothing but postponed disappointment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surged 1.6 percent, closing 0.4 percent higher over the prior week. Within the Dow’s 30-component index, all but one ended in the positive territory, led by the nation’s largest bank JP Morgan (JPM), up six percent on the day.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/12/2012

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 12, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +2.12%. A break back below it will generate a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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US Stocks Claw Back But Close Lower On Economy, Earnings Worries And Lack Of QE; ITB Rises, EWY Tanks

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks ended lower Thursday, extending their losing streak for the sixth consecutive day as investors grew worried over warnings from the technology sector on profits and remained wary of the lack of pace of global economic recovery.

Treasuries rallied as the allure for safe-haven assets seemed more attractive after the bank of Japan refused to announce further stimulus measures Thursday, and investors wondered if global central banks are incapable or unwilling to take coordinated action even as the world economy continues to bleed.

The QE addicted crowd maybe feeling fear now as the much counted on actions are not forthcoming. As I mentioned before, economic news will have to get a lot worse and/or markets will have to slip to much lower levels to induce the central banks to try to pull another rabbit out their collective hats.

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Fed Disappoints—Major Market ETFs Slip And Slide; Punk Economics Video Simplifies Understanding Of Economic Connections

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Major Market ETFs extended losses for the fourth day, although only slighty, after the latest Federal Reserve minutes showed few members arguing in favor of further assets purchase despite US unemployment rate remaining elevated. As the chart above shows, the QE junkies were disappointed as the markets stumbled.

Despite sinking 118 points earlier, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pared losses to close only 48.59 points lower, after a Commerce Department report showed US trade deficit narrowed to $48.7 billion in May due to higher exports to China and Europe from $50.1 billion in the prior month.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) remained flat, shaving only 0.027 points after the financial index climbed 0.8 percent following four consecutive down sessions. Energy however, was the day’s biggest percentage gainer among the index’s 10 business sectors.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/10/2012

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Some reality eased into the markets as the earning season started with a mixed bag and, of course, the European debt crisis is showing no signs of taking a summer siesta.

The S&P 500 dropped 2.4% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report. Our various models held up very well due to the lack of equity exposure which, given the continued global economic slowdown, is a good choice.

Market conditions could become much more volatile now that the widely advertised ESM, designed (but not yet ratified) to dole out the yet to be collected cash to all countries that need it, has been taken under advisement in the German court. The estimated timeline for a decision as to its constitutionality may come not in 2 weeks as hoped for but maybe in 3 months.

Hmmm, that’s a long time given the urgency of some countries to cover their negative cash flows and/or roll over debt that has become due.

In the meantime, here’s the latest model portfolio update:

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US Stocks Slip And Slide On Earnings Concerns, Spanish Debt; VIXY Edges Up, UNG Sinks

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks tumbled Tuesday with the Dow and the NASDAQ ending lower for the fourth straight day as investors became wary of corporate earnings looking softer than forecasted based on a string of weak results by technology companies.

Stocks opened strong earlier over news that EU finance ministers agreed late Monday to release an initial €30 billion to Spain by the end of July to help the country shore up its stricken banks.

Treasury 10-year yields slipped as refuge appeal of US assets rose amid concerns the European debt-crisis is deepening after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said British economy may slip further into a double-dip recession if European leaders fail to act fast. Sentiments soured further after a US survey of small business optimism came in softer than anticipated.

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