7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 8/28/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

More indecisiveness prevailed last week as the S&P 500 moved in a range of barely 5 points and closing slightly lower since last week’s ETF model portfolio report.

With the summer nearing its end, Wall Street’s big guns will return next week and trading volume is sure to pick up; the unknown is in what direction? Some clue is likely to come out of Ben Bernanke’s speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this Friday, an event that has the QE addicted crowd on edge.

Personally, I think the speech will be a non-event as, given the current state of the economy along with the elevated and unreal level of the major indexes, will not be enough of an impetus to pull out whatever ammunition is left in the Fed’s arsenal. Additionally, any premature accommodative easing will not pressure politicians on both sides of the isle to get serious about spending and debt issues; only a serious market pullback will.

In the meantime, here’s the latest ETF model portfolio update:

Read More

Going Nowhere In A Hurry Ahead Of Bernanke Speech; Draghi Skips Jackson Hole Citing Work

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US blue-chip stocks closed lower Tuesday while the NASDAQ composite finished in the green to extend gains for the second straight session as investors cheered better-than-expected housing data even as consumer confidence plummeted ahead of a potentially market-moving speech by the US Fed chairman later this week.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index that surveys home price across 20 cities and covers about 80 percent of the US housing market showed a 6.9 percent gain in the second quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of a 0.3 percent decline.

The US dollar declined Tuesday as hopes of more quantitative easing faded after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi cancelled his scheduled speech Saturday at the global central banker’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole. The dollar index, a barometer of the greenback’s strength against a basket of six global currencies, fell to 81.334 from Monday’s reading of 81.696.

Read More

Markets Drift Lower On Indecision; Europe Rises On Tech And Banks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US blue-chip indexes closed lower while tech-stocks jumped as investors remained undecided ahead of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech in a global banking symposium later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 0.3 percent after the blue-chip index’s breadth turned negative with 20 of the 30 stocks closing lower. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) closed fractionally lower while the tech-laden NASDAQ Composite (COMP) bucked the trend to close 0.1 percent higher after its biggest component Apple Inc (AAPL) added nearly 2 percent to hit a fresh all-time high after the smartphone maker aced rival Samsung in a patent lawsuit.

That was the excitement on the equity front as demand for safe-havens drove yields on 10-year Treasuries to near two-week lows on speculation US Fed chairman Bernanke will make a case for further asset purchases in his August 31 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 8/24/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 330 (last week 334) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 67 ETFs (last week 68) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 788 (last week 803) above the line and 73 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 8/26/2012

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 8/26/2012.

The markets pulled back slightly this week as the tug-of-war between those that are counting on a new round of QE and those that question its validity favored the latter.

The long overdue but very minor market retraction is barely worth mentioning, as the QE hope addicted crowd plays right into the hand of the Fed. How? The mere mentioning of the fact that there is further QE ammunition available seems to be enough to get the markets moving upwards again.

Just putting the QE word in any headline with the MSM (Main Stream Media) seems to be sufficient enough to pull the indexes out of any afternoon sell-off mode, which we have seen throughout the month of August. As I posted, it was all on extremely low volume, which is about to change after the Labor Day weekend when important upcoming news events will shift into overdrive.

Over past week, we covered the following:

Read More

Is Germany Prepared For A Greece Exit?

Ulli Europe Contact

As the world looks forward to the outcome of meetings between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande later in the week, it’s likely that Athens will make an exit from the eurozone soon as Berlin is unlikely to commit further funds for Greece, says Artur Fischer, co-chief executive of Boerse Berlin AG.

Since Germany goes to elections next year, conservative parties would be very reluctant to give more money fearing electoral backlash. Since Greece’s problems are systemic and require wide ranging structural reforms, extending bailout-linked austerity deadlines are of little use because Athens will need more bailout money in future even if concessions are provided now, he said.

Greece faces a real credibility crisis and it needs to convince Europe that the reforms carried out by the country are real and effective. Germany is unlikely to commit any further funds for Greece and Athens may just manage to secure an extension of its deficit reduction targets if the Troika of EC, the IMF and the ECB are convinced about its progress.

Due to the protracted crisis in Europe, the German economy has taken a hit with all the leading economic indicators turning negative. The German economy will probably witness higher unemployment and further difficulty going forward and in an election year politicians can ill afford such developments.

Read More