Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/19/2012

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 19, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has broken above its long term trend line (red) by +3.32%. A break back below it will generate a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Upward Momentum Slows But Equities Eke Out A Gain On Tech Earnings; USO Pops, VIXY Drops

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equities managed to close higher for the third consecutive day as good tech earnings lifted investor mood in an otherwise murky day overshadowed by disappointing economic readings.

Investor sentiment also strengthened after Germany’s Bundestag voted in favor of a €100 billion bailout package for Spain meant to recapitalize Madrid’s stricken banks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 35 points with 15 of the 30 stocks in the index ending higher for the day.  The S&P 500 Index (SPX) added 4 points with tech stocks front-running the day’s gainers while telecom and financials lagged among its 10 business groups.

Treasuries retreated after data released for leading economic indicators fell short of expectations, giving rise to speculations that the Federal Reserve will initiate quantitative easing 3 very soon to prop up the sputtering economy. At least that’s how the ever hopeful crowd on Wall Street views this data.

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The Rally Monkey Feasts On Tech Earnings, Bernanke Testimony; PXQ Soars, GDX Sinks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks extended gains for the second day in three as earnings by tech stocks lent an assist in helping the rally of the indexes to continue for the time being.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) jumped 103 points with chipmaker Intel Corp (INTC) posting its biggest single-session gain since November 30. Not that Intel performed that great; it was simply not as bad as expected.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 9 points with the tech sector fronting the day’s gainers while financials and consumer staples were the only decliners among its 10 business sectors. The forecast remains cloudy with Europe presenting a constant worry while the global slowdown adds to general nervousness.

That brings up the question “Is the S&P 500 approaching a top?”

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/17/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

After the sharp loss during the prior week, the markets managed a turnaround from an oversold condition with the S&P 500 rallying some 1.7% since last week’s ETF model portfolio report.

All eyes were on the Fed’s semiannual testimony yesterday and, while much jawboning went on, traders were disappointed that the next round of QE appeared not to be imminent.

As I have repeatedly said, QE will very likely make an appearance again at some time in the future, probably when the heat is on via a weakening economy and/or a severely slumping stock market. The Fed’s ammunition is limited, in my view, and its usage will need to be carefully considered. Of course, it’s unknown whether it will even have the desired effect or if it will succumb to unintended consequences.

In the meantime, here’s the latest model portfolio update:

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Domestic Stocks Rise In Choppy Trade On Some Solid Q2 Earnings But No QE; PGJ Sinks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Domestic stocks ratcheted higher Monday even though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave no hint that another round of assets purchase is imminent, so investors overcame disappointment and focused on consensus-beating economic reports and positive second-quarter earnings news.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) settled 78.33 points higher in a choppy market after sinking as much as 82 points in early trade and then rising 102 points. Within the 30-component Dow, 26 stocks ended in the expansionary region.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) added 10.03 points with natural resources, telecommunications and health-care performing the best among its 10 business groups.

Government debt bounced off from almost record lows as demand for safe haven assets eased after the Federal Reserve said June industrial production climbed 0.4 percent against analysts’ 0.3 percent projection.

Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee also kept hopes of further monetary stimulus alive after the central bank chairman said the Fed may consider reducing interest rate on bank reserves, or may purchase mortgage-backed securities, or undertake other appropriate measures to prop up the economy.

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US Equities Leak As Retail Sales Disappoint; CORN Pops

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities finished lower Monday as retail sales dropped unexpectedly for the third straight month, even though economists had forecasted a slight increase, raising concerns about the economic recovery that ultimately pushed down two of the three indexes for the seventh session in last eight.

US Treasury five-year yields fell to a record low of 0.60 percent earlier as investors sought refuge in government securities. Yields may, however, fight back if and that’s a big “if” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke calls for more stimulus when he climbs the Capitol Hill tomorrow for his half-yearly testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

Personally, I don’t believe any stimulus candy will be dished out at this point. Any QE left in the Fed’s arsenal may prove to be of questionable long-term value and will probably be saved for a rainy day when economic data worsens and/or the markets tank big time.

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