Equities Get Bruised Again; Middle East Weighs; Europe Sinks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equities finished sharply lower Wednesday to extend losses into the third straight session this week, as major averages fell to multi-month lows over concerns about the upcoming budget debate. Markets turned jittery on news of conflict between Israel and Palestine, wiping out an early tech-driven rally.

Stocks were on the decline after Egypt recalled its ambassador to Israel, and President Obama reiterated his opposition on extending Bush-era tax cuts for rich Americans before meeting top CEOs at the White House.

Obama said the fiscal cliff can be solved, adding the burden on balancing the national budget should not be borne by the middle-class. Investors were also concerned over fresh violence in the Middle East where an Israeli airstrike killed a Hamas military leader that stoked fears of an oil-supply shock.

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Equity Markets Get Clobbered; Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) Remain On The Bullish Side—But Barely

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

With the markets getting clobbered today, I thought for sure that both TTIs would retreat below their respective long-term trend lines and make the dive into bear market territory.

Well, it was close, but it did not happen yet as the Domestic TTI stayed above the line by a scant +0.01%, while the international TTI remained a little more bullish at +0.41%.

More details in the upcoming market commentary later on.

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/13/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Things have been getting a little ‘weaker and bleaker’ in regards to market momentum. Since last week’s ETF model portfolio report, all major indexes retreated sharply with the benchmark S&P 500 losing some 3.7%.

The big event, as in ‘election,’ is over and the reality that none of the prior problems have been resolved has set in with a vengeance as the bears are clearly in charge for the time being. We are sure to see some kind of a bounce—eventually; but even Q-Eternity (open ended QE) has not provided the hoped for safety net.

It seems to me the reason is obvious, as previous market rallies have simply been a result of “hope for more QE” and not a reaction to the actual event. Now that QE has become open ended, there is no market hope for further action. In other words, it appears that all Fed bullets have been used; that is until a new and grander scheme is being revealed.

Here’s the latest update to our ETF Model Portfolios:

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Major Indexes Fall As Budget Debate Weighs; Europe Rises

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US major indexes finished lower Tuesday after rallying early on as optimism over home improvement retailer Home Depot’s strong results were offset by fiscal cliff worries.

Investors chose to stick to the sidelines, unsure if lawmakers could cut a deal that would stop the onset of sharp spending cuts and tax hikes in January.

Giving up its early gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished 59 points lower, with most of the sell off coming in the final hour of trading. Breadth within the 30-component blue-chip index turned negative as decliners outpaced winners 24 to 6. The benchmark has now ended up lower in four of the past five sessions.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) shed 5 points with financials and technology pacing losses and consumer discretionary and utilities gaining the most among its 10 business groups.

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Equities Flat Ahead Of Budget Talks; Europe Slips Over Greece Uncertainty

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities finished mostly flat with investors sticking to the sidelines before talks to head off tax hikes and automatic spending cuts that would begin in January as uncertainty over Greece and Europe still loomed on the horizon.

Chinese exports grew the fastest in five months, topping estimates at over 11 percent, a report over the weekend showed. That helped offset market jitters after a dour report showed the Japanese economy shrank 0.9 percent in the third quarter due to falling exports.

US stocks fell the most in five months last week as markets focused on the budget standoff between the newly reelected President Obama and the Republican dominated House of Representatives.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/9/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 214 (last week 308) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 54 ETFs (last week 65) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 435 (last week 694) above the line and 427 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

For quick access to the most recent StatSheet including TTI charts and all momentum figures, click here. You can read the latest ETF Model Portfolio update here.