7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/13/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Things have been getting a little ‘weaker and bleaker’ in regards to market momentum. Since last week’s ETF model portfolio report, all major indexes retreated sharply with the benchmark S&P 500 losing some 3.7%.

The big event, as in ‘election,’ is over and the reality that none of the prior problems have been resolved has set in with a vengeance as the bears are clearly in charge for the time being. We are sure to see some kind of a bounce—eventually; but even Q-Eternity (open ended QE) has not provided the hoped for safety net.

It seems to me the reason is obvious, as previous market rallies have simply been a result of “hope for more QE” and not a reaction to the actual event. Now that QE has become open ended, there is no market hope for further action. In other words, it appears that all Fed bullets have been used; that is until a new and grander scheme is being revealed.

Here’s the latest update to our ETF Model Portfolios:

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Major Indexes Fall As Budget Debate Weighs; Europe Rises

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US major indexes finished lower Tuesday after rallying early on as optimism over home improvement retailer Home Depot’s strong results were offset by fiscal cliff worries.

Investors chose to stick to the sidelines, unsure if lawmakers could cut a deal that would stop the onset of sharp spending cuts and tax hikes in January.

Giving up its early gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished 59 points lower, with most of the sell off coming in the final hour of trading. Breadth within the 30-component blue-chip index turned negative as decliners outpaced winners 24 to 6. The benchmark has now ended up lower in four of the past five sessions.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) shed 5 points with financials and technology pacing losses and consumer discretionary and utilities gaining the most among its 10 business groups.

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Equities Flat Ahead Of Budget Talks; Europe Slips Over Greece Uncertainty

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities finished mostly flat with investors sticking to the sidelines before talks to head off tax hikes and automatic spending cuts that would begin in January as uncertainty over Greece and Europe still loomed on the horizon.

Chinese exports grew the fastest in five months, topping estimates at over 11 percent, a report over the weekend showed. That helped offset market jitters after a dour report showed the Japanese economy shrank 0.9 percent in the third quarter due to falling exports.

US stocks fell the most in five months last week as markets focused on the budget standoff between the newly reelected President Obama and the Republican dominated House of Representatives.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/9/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 214 (last week 308) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 54 ETFs (last week 65) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 435 (last week 694) above the line and 427 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

For quick access to the most recent StatSheet including TTI charts and all momentum figures, click here. You can read the latest ETF Model Portfolio update here.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 11/11/2012

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 11/11/2012.

Some fireworks went off after Election Day pulling the major market indexes sharply lower with the S&P 500 surrendering 2.4% over the last week.

With just about all serious economic issues having been postponed due to the election battle, reality hit Wall Street that all may not be well domestically and internationally causing the sudden slide in the market.

Whether this is the beginning of a move back into bear market territory remains to be seen; so far our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have stayed on the bullish side of their respective trend lines but have weakened considerably.

To me, more downside momentum can easily be generated by external forces such as the European debt crisis, or more specifically Greece, which is due to run out of money on November 16. And, of course, Spain is not that far behind. If the funding spigot gets shut off, we will have a guaranteed disaster on our hands that will affect markets worldwide.

Over past week, we covered the following:

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Will US Fiscal Headwinds Slow Down Growth In Q4?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

 

Despite the looming ‘fiscal cliff,’ the US economy is unlikely to fall back into recession in 2013, especially when some good numbers are coming out towards the end of the year, says Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Capital.

US economists have recently upgraded growth forecasts to an annual clip of 2.8 percent from an earlier pace of 2 percent for the fourth quarter, signaling a pick up in growth. So, heading into 2013, we are witnessing a relatively sustained economic expansion in the US economy; and with the Fed clearly behind with full support, it’s just a question of magnitude and measures, Julian said. It’s unlikely the Congress will do something suicidal though there will be a lot of brinkmanship involved in the negotiations leading up to the fiscal deal, he added.

President’s Obama’s biggest challenge will be to negotiate a long-term deal rather than trying out a short-term fix. The US can still manage an annual growth of 1.5 percent in 2013, which translates into about $200 billion in additional goods and services, he said. If the US goes over the fiscal cliff, i.e. budget cuts and tax hikes are implemented, global GDP – which is currently running at 3/3.25 percent, will slow down. However, with China growing at over seven percent this year and hopefully possibly managing to clock more than seven percent next year after the current political uncertainty over leadership transition gets over, the impact should be lower, Julian noted.

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