7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 12/31/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

A roller coaster ride best describes the market activity of the past week, during which the S&P 500 gave back 4 points as the fiscal cliff ‘on-and-off’ negotiations pushed the benchmark index all over the chart.

In the end, it was a year during which equities came out ahead while balanced portfolios lagged behind. Our best model ETF portfolio performer turned out to be #5 with a solid +12.33%.

Since we are still in a buy mode, according to my Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), all models will be rebalanced as of 12/31/12 and the first update for 2013 will be Wednesday, January 9.

The Ivy portfolio (#6) will be discontinued and be replaced by a bond portfolio, which many readers had requested. If a bond portfolio is of interest to you, be sure to tune in on 1/9/13.

Here’s the last update for 2012:

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Postponing The Inevitable

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

As I pointed out yesterday, the hard decisions in regards to the fiscal cliff negotiations have not been made and who knows, how and if they ever will be addressed once we step into 2013.

For some food for thought on this topic, Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box, had some worthwhile comments in “Postponed:”

“Postponed” is the official stamp across the world. This is the operative word of governmental policy. Whether Europe or America, whether capitalist or socialist government; this is the credo, the banner, the flag waving in the wind for dealing with economic problems.

Throw more money at it and barrels of it, have the central banks print and defer any pain much less any tough decisions. We live in a state of postponement, defer and delay which cancels the consequences of the moment but places more severe consequences, greater pain and tougher choices but moments out into our future.

Make no mistake; the world has become a more dangerous place either haunted by the specter of rampant inflation or haunted by valuations of debt and currencies that could turn the financial markets into a swirl of dislocation where a plunge into a freezing sea of disarray awaits as capital goes to gold, senior debt regardless of yields and nations deemed to be safe havens.

Grant’s first ten Rules, “Preservation of Capital” may exceed their present definition as they become all that is important and not just one of the considerations for making investments. Look about you, consider with care, what has been fixed and the honest answer, the truthful answer is Nothing. Greece is no better, Spain is no better, Portugal is no better and America is worse. Nothing has been fixed! Nothing!

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Going Off The Cliff, But…

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

It was another day marked by confusion, last minute agreements that a fiscal cliff deal had been reached only to be followed by announcements that nothing had been finalized, but talks were still going on, etc., etc. It was insanity at its finest…

In the end, hope prevailed that a deal is still possible, which pushed the major indexes higher into the close. But, we are going off the fiscal cliff anyway at the end of this day when 2012 ends.

However, there is always that chance that some kind of agreement could be still emerging in early January and, if all parties agree, made retroactive to 1/1/13. I won’t hold my breath for that one, but market behavior tells us that this will be so. Given that, what could possibly go wrong?

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 12/28/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 300 (last week 349) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 71 ETFs (last week 82) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 562 (last week 700) above the line and 297 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 12/30/2012

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 12/30/2012.

Hope for a fiscal cliff rescue package finally fizzled out, and the markets slipped with the S&P 500 surrendering some 2% during this holiday shortened week. More meetings are planned, but odds are low that anything meaningful will be accomplished.

Some watered down version of a cliff compromise will do nothing to resolve the issues at hand and will only be another can kicking exercise. The markets may have finally woken up to that fact and may not react too kindly to any such attempt of avoiding reality.

I am sticking to my long-held view that it will take a 20% or higher drop in the markets to get Washington’s finest to become serious about attacking the issues that ail us.

Over past week, we covered the following:

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One Man’s Opinion: Will The Housing Market Recover In The Next Three Years?

Ulli Housing Market Contact

The US housing market continues to be on the mend and 2012 may go down as the year when housing prices came back to life. Trulia Inc’s Jed Kolko says the numbers will continue to improve and the latest Case-Shiller number seems to back up his claim, as housing prices across 20 cities rose the most in two years in November.

But we are still only half-way back to normal in housing recovery and that’s still a long way from normal, Jed noted. The housing market really bottomed sometime in 2009. That was the low point for sales, construction, delinquencies and foreclosures and it has taken us three years to get even half-way back to normal. But that’s still lot better than anyone thought we would be by the end of the year, he added.

Asked to define normal, he said when he looks at normal, he looks at historical normal before the bubble and the bust. Of course there was no specific moment when the housing market was normal, but it certainly wasn’t normal in 2005-2006 as prices were incredibly high and there was more construction than the markets could absorb.

Asked if the housing market between 1999 and 2003 could be termed as normal by looking at the growth-rate during that period of time and then extrapolating them to find out where we should be today theoretically, Jed said before the bubble and the bust, the major indicators like construction and sales tended to be more stable than what has been seen in the last decade.

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