US Stocks Crawl Higher On Data, Speech; Europe Extends Gains For The Second Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

While blue-chips declined, most US stocks closed marginally higher Wednesday, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level since Oct 2007 as investors compared slowing retail sales with slightly upbeat earnings report.

Before markets opened, data released by the Census Bureau showed US retail sales rose at a seasonally adjusted pace of 0.1 percent in January, matching the median forecasts of economists but well short of a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month. The data indicated consumer spending has started to get affected following an increase in payroll tax at the beginning of the year.

In Washington, President Barack Obama called for raising the federal minimum wage to $9 an hour from the current $7.25 rate in the State of the Union speech Tuesday evening. The president also pledged to increase trade with Europe and urged lawmakers to come together to end the “manufactured” crisis over the federal deficit. The president reiterated his demand that Republicans accept raising tax revenue along with spending cuts as part of his goal of $1.5 trillion in additional deficit reduction over a decade. A balance could be achieved by getting rid of deductions and tax loopholes for the well-off and the well-connected, he said.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 2/12/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The major indexes meandered in a tight 8 point trading range (S&P 500) but ended up closing at the high point with the Dow regaining its 14k milestone marker again.

It comes as no surprise to me that momentum seems to be slowing as we’re honing in on multi-year highs for the S&P 500. With economic fundamentals being totally disconnected from market levels, some trigger will eventually instill a sense of reality and pull the indexes back to an area that is commensurate with actual organic economic growth.

Who knows when that event will occur, so we will follow this trend in a balanced fashion being aware and prepared that it could come to an end at anytime.

Here’s the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios:

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Market Indexes Inch Upward As Dow Hits Five-Year High; Europe Gains on Barclays

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equities edged up Tuesday sending benchmark indexes to five-year highs, as earnings topped street estimates and investors looked ahead to President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address in the evening.

In economic news, the US Treasury reported a budget surplus of $2.9 billion for January, beating estimates of a $2 billion deficit.

Overseas, finance ministers of G7 countries pledged to have market determined exchange rates and committed to focus fiscal and monetary policies on domestic issues, rather than targeting exchange rates.

Tuesday proved to be a busy day for US Fed officials. Voting member E. George, the sole “no” vote at the FOMC meeting last month, said the economy is put at risk when the central bank starts to sell the same securities it is buying.

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Indexes Drift Lower In Lackluster Trading; Novo Nordisk Puts A Drag On Europe

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The major index ETFs finished marginally lower Monday on the lightest volume trading day of 2013 as investors took a breather after the recent rally and reassessed the markets that have pushed the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones near all-time highs.

With no significant economic and corporate-earnings news to chew on, markets took a pause Monday, recording the year’s lowest trading volume. Most Asian markets remained closed on account of Lunar New Year celebrations, eliminating one more possible bullish driver.

Finance ministers from the 17-member euro-area met in Brussels today to discuss aid to Cyprus and Greece as concern over the region’s debt crisis revived following political turmoil in Spain and Italy.

Separately, news reports suggested officials from Group of Seven nations were considering of issuing a statement aimed at averting a so-called currency war. Reuters reported a G-7 statement could be released ahead of the meeting of G-20 finance ministers and central bankers in Moscow this week.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 2/8/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 367 (last week 368) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 83 ETFs (last week 85) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 808 (last week 810) above the line and 51 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

P.S.: Please note that the DD% columns for OIH, RTH and PPH have not been adjusted for recent splits.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 2/10/2013

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 2/10/2013.

Monday’s sell off in the markets proved to be short lived as upward momentum resumed and, while the indexes spent the rest of the week meandering sideways, the S&P managed to add 0.33% from last Friday’s close while the Dow had its first weekly negative close this year.

Any sort of correction would be a healthy thing given the run we’ve had since the November sell off. Otherwise, if this spike to the upside continues, the eventual awakening could be rude and financially painful.

Some bond ETFs have already come off their highs and broken their long term trend lines but have not triggered their trailing sell stop points. TLH, in which we have positions, has come close a few times.

Higher yields equate to higher interest rates and lower bond prices, but it’s too early to tell whether this reversal is temporary. If it’s not, and this low interest period is slowly coming to an end, there is a good chance that stocks will follow and head south as well.

Over past week, we covered the following:

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