05-24-2013

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, May 24, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05232013/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, May 24, 2013

BEARS PASS BULLS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND

A quiet, low-volume session Friday drifted to a mixed close with the three major stock indexes posting their first negative week since mid-April on lingering concern that the central bank may scale back its stimulus measures to support the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed marginally higher by 9 points (0.1%) at 15,303, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite descended 1 point to close at 1,650 and 3,499, respectively. Both lost ground for a third-straight day, a first in 2013 for the two indexes. In light volume, 591 million shares were traded on the NYSE, and 1.4 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq.

The major averages began the day on a lower note as nine of ten sectors saw losses of more than 0.5%. The consumer staples sector (XLP) was the lone exception as the group spent the entire day in positive territory thanks to the relative strength of Dow component Procter & Gamble. The second-largest staple stock advanced 4.1% after the company reaffirmed its fourth quarter guidance and named Alan Lafley President, Chairman, and CEO. Ahead of the holiday weekend, the broader market drifted back towards yesterday’s closing levels.

The energy space lost 0.4% as crude oil shed 0.4% to end at $93.92. Industrials also pressured the broader market as transportation-related names sold off. Relative weakness in truckers, delivery services, and shippers caused the Dow Jones Transportation Average to lose 0.5%.

Cyclical groups saw comparable losses in early action. However, the financial sector displayed some afternoon strength as major banks registered gains. Today’s biggest laggards could be found in the high-yielding utilities sector as the group continued its recent weakness. Including today’s 1.0% decline, the sector lost 3.7% this week, and is down 6.7% in May.

For the week, the Dow fell 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each dropped 1.1 percent. The S&P 500 had traded below its 14-day moving average – 1,647.91 – during the day but closed just couple of points above the level.

Overall, the U.S. stock market’s pullbacks have been short and shallow since November as traders have taken any weakness as an opportunity to increase long positions. Stocks ended their weekly record-high streak on uneasiness surrounding the impact of the potential Fed downshifting of its asset purchases.

These concerns came courtesy of Fed’s Chief Bernanke’s testimony on Capitol Hill offering mixed signals regarding asset purchases. Following the Fed events, Japanese stocks tumbled the most since the aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake, as the Fed tightening fears were exacerbated by a report showing an unexpected contraction in Chinese manufacturing.

However, stocks managed to limit losses, led by the Dow, aided by stronger-than-forecasted earnings reports from Home Depot and Hewlett-Packard. Also, with existing home sales rising to a pace not seen since November 2009, and new home sales exceeding expectations, while jobless claims fell more than expected to compliment Friday’s durable goods report, all contributed to the damage control.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) joined the major indexes and came off their lofty levels ending the week as follows:

Domestic TTI: +4.08% (last week +5.07%)

International TTI: +8.29% (last week +10.09%)

We remain fully invested subject to our trailing sell stops.

Have a great week.

Ulli…

————————————————————-

READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Jake:

Q: Ulli: Thanks again for the assistance you gave me during our recent phone conversation. Among other things, you mentioned that you were working on a new e-book with the thought provoking title “Beating the S&P…with the S&P.” Can you elaborate again as to when that project will be finished?

A: Jake: Yes, I indeed am working on this e-book, which will be made available for free to anyone who is interested in this topic. It covers the past 13 years and shows the many advantages of using trend tracking vs. Buy-and-Hold backed by hard evidence and many truly enlightening charts. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I hope to have it finished by the beginning of July.

———————————————————-

WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

———————————————————

Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, May 24, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/05/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-05232013/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, May 24, 2013

BEARS PASS BULLS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND

A quiet, low-volume session Friday drifted to a mixed close with the three major stock indexes posting their first negative week since mid-April on lingering concern that the central bank may scale back its stimulus measures to support the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed marginally higher by 9 points (0.1%) at 15,303, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite descended 1 point to close at 1,650 and 3,499, respectively. Both lost ground for a third-straight day, a first in 2013 for the two indexes. In light volume, 591 million shares were traded on the NYSE, and 1.4 billion shares changed hands on the Nasdaq.

The major averages began the day on a lower note as nine of ten sectors saw losses of more than 0.5%. The consumer staples sector (XLP) was the lone exception as the group spent the entire day in positive territory thanks to the relative strength of Dow component Procter & Gamble. The second-largest staple stock advanced 4.1% after the company reaffirmed its fourth quarter guidance and named Alan Lafley President, Chairman, and CEO. Ahead of the holiday weekend, the broader market drifted back towards yesterday’s closing levels.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/23/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, May 23, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +4.28% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

Read More

Stimulus Speculation Leads Equities Lower—Nikkei Does A Swan Dive

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equities fought off early pressure but retreated at the end, giving benchmark indexes their first back-to-back drops in one month. The exacerbated concerns over the possible scaling back of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve along with disappointing Chinese manufacturing data were just too much to overcome.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 12 points (0.1%) to 15,295, the S&P 500 Index declined 5 points (0.3%) to 1,651, and the Nasdaq Composite descended 4 points (0.1%) to 3,459.

All ten sectors of the S&P 500 began the session with sharp losses before the daylong rebound helped some groups return to yesterday’s closing levels. The Index opened with a loss of 1.2% after Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 7.3%, largest drop since the aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake and Tsunami. What caused that swan dive?

Read More

Did The Fed Just Kick-Off The Pullback?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed chart

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US equity markets staged a harsh downside reversal Wednesday and closed the trading day lower in the wake of the remarks from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and minutes from the recent policymakers meeting that sparked fears of less easing in the near future.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 80 points (0.5%) to 15,307, the S&P 500 Index declined 14 points (0.8%) to 1,655 after early strength turned into afternoon weakness, and the Nasdaq Composite descended 39 points (1.1%) to 3,463. Those indexes had been up as much as 1.1%, 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively – new highs for all – before reversing. Volume swelled 25% on the Nasdaq and 34% on the NYSE.

All 10 industries in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined. The utilities and telecom sectors led to the downside as traders continued to dump income-oriented names. Including today’s 1.6% decline, the utilities sector is down 5.0% month-to-date. Elsewhere, the energy space lost 1.2% as crude oil declined 2.1%. The energy component ended at $94.18 per barrel, and weighed on the growth-sensitive sector.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 5/21/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The pace of upward momentum definitely slowed last week, but the major averages managed to eke out a gain nonetheless with the S&P 500 adding some 1.2%.

On the bearish side, the precious metals continued their wild ride to the downside, interrupted by short violent rebounds, which did not have enough strength to reestablish the bullish tendencies of the past as gold remains solidly stuck below its long term trend line.

As a result, any portfolios containing metals have been lagging this year along with bond ETFs, which have been meandering aimlessly through the past few months with some of them showing slight gains while others are sporting minor losses. So far, this has been the year of equities with some of the low volatility ETFs outperforming the S&P 500.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

Read More