Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/25/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 25, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The Domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.49% after briefly dipping below it late in June.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

Read More

Late Rally Helps Index ETFs Overcome Mixed Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equity indexes eked out gains, showing some resilience in the face of headwinds from mixed earnings reports and economic data. The broader market’s advance was modest after another round of mixed earnings reports. Specifically, PulteGroup Inc was sharply lower after the homebuilder’s results missed analysts’ forecasts, while General Motor’s stronger-than-anticipated results were overshadowed by continued weakness in Europe.

Elsewhere, shares of Facebook rallied after the social-networking site easily exceeded the Street’s quarterly expectations. In other earnings news, Dow member 3M Co, and Dow Chemical Co bested the Street’s earnings forecasts, while Bristol-Myers Squibb Co matched expectations.

On economics front, durable goods orders rose 4.2% in June, its third straight increase, and well above the consensus of 1.7%. The 12-month average of orders rose to its highest level since February 2012, indicating a positive trend. The latest gain was led by transportation, particularly aircraft. On a y/y trend basis, durable goods orders have increased 7.6%, the most since April 2012, while capex orders are up 4.7%. This suggests factory orders are regaining momentum, which bodes well for manufacturing output in the near term.

Read More

Profit-Taking Pulls Stocks Down Despite Upbeat Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Wall Street backed off record highs despite a jump in U.S. new home sales to the highest level in five years and an unexpected expansion for Eurozone manufacturing activity. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index suffered its first-two day drop in a month, as losses in utility and commodity shares more than offset gains in the tech sector on Apple’s solid earnings. However, the benchmark index has ended twelve of the past fourteen sessions with gains, climbing 4.9% during that span.

Investors received a full slate of mostly better-than-expected earnings at the open. During today’s trading session, stocks declined across the board, with nine of the 10 S&P 500 industry sector indexes moving lower.

The utilities index was the worst performer, shedding 1.6 percent, while the materials and energy indexes fell nearly 1 percent apiece. The tech sector spent the entire session in positive territory after Apple’s earnings topped analyst estimates. The largest tech stock gained 5.1% but chipmakers did not fare as well. Broadcom tumbled 15.1% after its cautious guidance overshadowed the company’s in-line report.

Read More

7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/23/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The upward march of the major equity indexes continued with the S&P 500 adding almost 1% to move into record territory.

This week’s attempt to break the magic 1,700 milestone marker has failed so far, although we touched the 1,699 level yesterday. Very likely, any really bad economic news, validating that the Fed’s money pumping efforts are justified, should propel us through that current glass ceiling.

While bond ETFs have rebounded off their lows somewhat, they still remain below their respective long trend lines and therefore in bear market territory. To me, they do not present an investment opportunity at this time.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

Read More

Mixed Signals Keep Investors On The Fence

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. stocks ended mixed with the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 staying close to record intraday highs in a tight trading range, as the unexpected contraction in regional manufacturing activity and the plethora of divergent earnings reports left traders on the fence. SPY fell, halting a streak of four straight gains.

Overseas, investors increased speculation that the Chinese government will deploy economic stimulus measures to combat a slowing economy. Stocks in Asia finished broadly higher, while European equity markets finished to the downside.

Shortly after the opening bell, the Dow Jones industrial average climbed to an intraday record high of 15,604.22, while the S&P 500 reached an all-time intraday high of 1,698.78. The Dow outperformed the broader market thanks to United Technologies and DuPont, along with Texas Instruments, posting stronger-than-expected profits. The Materials sector finished the day in the lead. It was closely followed by yesterday’s biggest laggard, energy.

Read More

SPY’s Third Consecutive Record Closing High

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mond pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The major U.S. equity indices closed the trading day with modest gains after housing data and earnings from companies including McDonald’s Corp. fueled speculation stimulus would continue. Investors have increasingly turned to stocks this month, as U.S. equity ETFs are receiving money at the fastest rate since September 2008. On the flip side, this will end badly for those who are not prepared to exit once the inevitable downturn arrives.

Last week, the first round of second quarter earnings brought a fair share of top line misses. This week started on a similar note after Dow component McDonald’s reported 2Q earnings of $1.38 per share, below the $1.40 Reuters consensus estimate, as revenues increased 2% year-over-year (y/y) to $7.1 billion, roughly inline with what the Street had anticipated. Outside of earnings, Yahoo Inc. announced that it has reached an agreement to repurchase 40 million shares of its common stock owned by Third Point LLC at a purchase price of $29.11 per share.

The only major domestic economic report today was existing-home sales, which surprisingly declined, decreasing 1.2% month-over-month (m/m) in June to an annual rate of 5.08 million units, below the 5.26 million unit Bloomberg estimate, but are 15.2% higher than last year. The median existing-home price rose 13.5% from a year ago to $214,200, marking the 16th consecutive month of y/y price increases. The supply of homes available for sale increased 1.9% m/m but remains 7.6% lower y/y at 2.19 million units, equating to 5.2 months of supply at the current sales pace. The drop in home sales does not bode well for the future.

Read More