7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 7/2/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The fear of “tapering” subsided somewhat during the past week as announcements/clarifications by several heads of Federal Reserve banks had a soothing impact on Wall Street traders’ raw nerves.

Remember, the only reason the major market indexes are at these current levels is due to the QE initiative sponsored by the Fed. Any talk of reducing the program has had and will have dire consequences to market direction. The first casualty so far has been interest rates, which have affected bond prices negatively this year.

Bond ETFs have been a drag on all portfolios, as equities were the only place to be during the first 6 months of this year. Whether this relentless move to higher levels will be sustained is doubtful in my opinion.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Index ETFs Dip In Volatile Session

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equity ETFs edged lower erasing earlier gains despite upbeat domestic auto sales figures for June and a stronger-than-forecasted report on factory orders. Selling pressure was fueled in-part by the escalating political turmoil in Egypt along with euro weakness after reports indicated the International Monetary Fund and Eurozone officials gave Greece three days to prove its reforms are on course.  The S&P 500 met resistance around its 50-day moving average again; a level the index has not been able to close above for the past two weeks.

Major U.S. stock indexes traded higher until early afternoon, boosted by positive car sales and factory orders, which rose 2.1% in May, its third increase in the past four months, and above the consensus of 2.0%. Nondurable goods orders moved up 0.7%. On a y/y trend basis, factory orders growth has been anemic for months, but has stabilized around 1.0%, led by durables.

Stocks retreated from their highs in the afternoon amid headlines from Egypt and Europe. The news took some wind out the market’s sails and pressured the euro below 1.30, to a one-month low against the dollar. Today’s dollar strength did not slow the advance in crude oil.

Among the S&P 500’s 10 sectors, the energy sector rose 0.2 percent after crude oil prices hit a nine-month high as turmoil in the Middle East unsettled investors. Industrial sector fell 1.1 percent and ranked as the biggest decliner. Meanwhile, how did the international markets perform?

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Bulls Kick-Off Year’s Second Half On Solid Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon Pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Stocks started hot on Monday with strong gains across the board; the second half of the year began in the same positive fashion as the first half, rebounding from Friday’s sell-off. But volume lagged all day, and prices cooled down by day’s end. Upbeat manufacturing reports from the U.S., Japan, and the Eurozone among others helped to fuel the broad-based rally. Treasuries were slightly higher following the return to expansion territory for manufacturing activities and constructions.

Despite mixed data out of China, as the country’s Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.10 from 50.80, stocks climbed at the open, taking a cue from gains in major markets across the world. Meanwhile, most European Manufacturing PMI reports surprised to the upside, but only Great Britain posted an expansionary reading while Spain came in right on the border between contraction and expansion. The aggregate Eurozone Manufacturing PMI ticked up to 48.8 from 48.7.

In the U.S., the ISM Manufacturing Index rebounded 1.9 points in June, its first increase in four months, to 50.9, above the consensus of 50.0. It indicated the manufacturing sector expanded in 45 of the past 47 months.

Moreover, The ISM prices index increased slightly to 52.5, but remained in the zone consistent with low consumer inflationary pressures. Finally, construction spending rose 0.5% in May, close to the consensus of 0.6%, reaching its highest level since September 2009. Taken together, the market showed a solid chance of posting a follow-through day.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 6/28/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 263 (last week 263) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 43 ETFs (last week 45) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 749 (last week 722) above the line and 110 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 6/30/2013

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market commentaries I posted to my blog during the week ending on 6/30/2013.

The past week started out on very shaky ground as far as bullish momentum was concerned. The reason was the fallout from the Fed’s taper talk that pushed the S&P 500 down to the 1,573 level and below its widely followed 50-day moving average.

It sure looked like that this level was way too close for comfort, as a host of Fed governors subsequently took to the airwaves to “clarify” the Fed’s true intentions via several damage control speeches. For the time being that assist worked with the major indexes rallying for 3 days before giving back some of these gains on Friday.

Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), which had briefly dipped into bearish territory on Monday, recovered as well and closed the week on the bullish side of the trend line; although very modestly. I believe this possible trend reversal may surface again after the 4th of July weekend.

Over past week, we covered the following:

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One Man’s Opinion: Did The Fed’s Taper-Talk Come Earlier Than Expected?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

92835431Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s announcement that the central bank could slow down its assets purchase program by September triggered a sell-off in the fixed-income markets, pushing yields higher.

The Fed’s move, however, seems to have come a little earlier than anticipated, says Ira Jersey, interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG. Asked if he agreed that the economy is good enough to start rolling back some of the QE, Ira answered in the negative.

The Fed’s own forecast says growth and inflation will accelerate in the second half of the year and hence a couple of month’s data is required before reaching any conclusion. One of the reasons why the Fed might be doing this is to pave the way for the next chairperson where chairman Bernanke can take some of the blame if there is an economic slowdown due to the reduction in quantitative easing, he explained.

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