ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 8/30/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 272 (last week 300) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 50 ETFs (last week 54) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 752 (last week 779) above the line and 107 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Should Fixed-Income Investors Focus On Short-Duration Bonds?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431Equities and bonds have been moving in lock-step recently, which is rather unusual since they tend to move in opposite directions because they are negatively correlated. If stocks fall due to geopolitical tensions, bonds tend to rally, giving investors some protection, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC.

For the few weeks in late July and early August, the correlation turned positive for the first time since the European crisis. One of the challenges of such a situation is that it increases the overall risk of investors’ portfolio because both asset classes move in the same direction in unison, Guy noted.

Asked if he would attribute it to the Fed’s taper talk, Guy answered in affirmative. The Federal Reserve basically increases the value of all assets by entering into quantitative easing or cutting interest rates because investors then can buy any assets due to excess liquidity in the system. The reverse order follows when they get ready to wind down stimulus, he explained.

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New ETFs On The Block: First Trust Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund (YDIV)

Ulli Income ETFs Contact

71080438First Trust, the Wheaton, Illinois-based provider of exchange-traded products known for its niche strategies, has launched a non US-focused ETF that seeks to provide income sans volatility through a diverse international portfolio of high yielding securities.

The First Trust International Multi-Asset Diversified Income index Fund (YDIV) is the international version of the First Trust Multi-Asset Diversified Income Index Fund (MDIV) that the firm launched about a year ago.

The new fund will compete with similar products by SPDR (SPDR SSgA Income Allocation Fund), iShares (iShares Morningstar Multi-Asset Income Index Fund), Guggenheim (Guggenheim International Multi-Asset Income ETF) and ArrowShares (Arrow Dow Jones Global Yield ETF), and like its predecessor MDIV, will hold real estate investment trusts (REITs), master limited partnerships (MLPs), utilities, ETFs, fixed-income instruments and preferred stocks.

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08-30-2013

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 30, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-08292013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 30, 2013

MAJOR INDEX ETFS END AUGUST ON DOWN NOTE

U.S. stocks snapped their recent two-day winning streak to fall in a thinly traded session as the S&P 500 index recorded its worst loss since May 2012. Stocks struggled following a report that showed U.S. consumer spending and income were softer than forecasted, which overshadowed a larger-than-expected upward revision to consumer sentiment.

Investors also avoided making large bets before a long weekend with the situation in Syria still uncertain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower (0.2%) at 14,810, the S&P 500 Index lost 5 points (0.3%) to 1,633, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 30 points (0.8%) to 3,590.

Afternoon trading was volatile, with indexes swinging from break-even levels to their lows as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry commented on the Syrian situation, implying the U.S. will act alone if necessary. While buying interest was somewhat scarce, the CBOE Volatility Index rose 0.8% as participants demanded some downside protection. Reviewing today’s economic data, personal income edged up 0.1% in July, below the consensus of 0.2%. Meanwhile, spending levels were also weak. Consumption grew 0.1% in July; the consensus expected an increase of 0.3%.

Eight of ten sectors ended in the red with influential cyclical groups weighing on the broader market. Home builders settled on their lows as the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction fell 1.9%. Retailers also slumped as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF lost 0.8%.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector succumbed to the pressure exerted by transportation companies as the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 1.1%. On the upside, consumer staples (XLP) added 0.3% and the weakest sector of the month, utilities, tacked on a slim gain of less than 0.1%.

The S&P 500 fell 3.1 percent in August and lost 1.8 percent for the week in a third decline in the past four weeks. The Nasdaq fell 1.9 percent for the week while the Dow slid 1.3 percent in its fourth straight weekly loss. For the month, the Dow fell 4.4 percent and the Nasdaq lost 1 percent.

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day but investors will have plenty on their minds next week. Any potential action in Syria, and the impact on both oil prices and global growth, may have an effect on monetary policy globally.

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped from last Friday and closed the week as follows:

Domestic TTI: +0.84% (last week +1.85%)

International TTI: +2.43% (last week +5.18%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Robert:

Q: Ulli: I am a US Government employee with my retirement funds in the governments Thrift Savings Plan. As I’m sure you know our plan enables us to invest in an international fund which tracks the EAFE.

With Europe beginning to get back on its feet, coupled with China, do you believe I would get more return with the international fund than investing in a fund which tracks the S&P 500.The international fund is lagging behind for the year so far but would it be a good bet going forward? Thanks for your attention…I faithfully read all of your market commentaries and look forward to next week.

A: Robert: You could go that route as long as you use my recommended sell stop discipline to protect or limit the downside risk.

While a couple of data points have indeed been positive, long-term, I think Europe will be a disaster.

Right now, appearances are everything as the German elections loom in September. There is nothing positive in any of the countries like Spain, Italy, Portugal and even France, which are basically insolvent.

I still think the U.S. is least dirty shirt in the basket, so my investment theme for this year has been domestic, and I don’t see any good argument to change that. Of course, all my thinking will change once the domestic trend line crosses into bear market territory.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, August 30, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-08292013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, August 30, 2013

MAJOR INDEX ETFS END AUGUST ON DOWN NOTE

U.S. stocks snapped their recent two-day winning streak to fall in a thinly traded session as the S&P 500 index recorded its worst loss since May 2012. Stocks struggled following a report that showed U.S. consumer spending and income were softer than forecasted, which overshadowed a larger-than-expected upward revision to consumer sentiment.

Investors also avoided making large bets before a long weekend with the situation in Syria still uncertain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 31 points lower (0.2%) at 14,810, the S&P 500 Index lost 5 points (0.3%) to 1,633, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 30 points (0.8%) to 3,590.

Afternoon trading was volatile, with indexes swinging from break-even levels to their lows as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry commented on the Syrian situation, implying the U.S. will act alone if necessary. While buying interest was somewhat scarce, the CBOE Volatility Index rose 0.8% as participants demanded some downside protection. Reviewing today’s economic data, personal income edged up 0.1% in July, below the consensus of 0.2%. Meanwhile, spending levels were also weak. Consumption grew 0.1% in July; the consensus expected an increase of 0.3%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/29/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, August 29, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The Domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +1.34% after briefly dipping below it late in June.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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