Gold And Silver Shine As Trade Fears Weigh On Dollar

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Global trade tensions had markets on edge early in the day, with major indexes slipping into the red right out of the gate.

The pressure came after China pushed back on U.S. claims that it had violated a temporary trade deal—blaming Washington for not holding up its end. The back-and-forth between the two powers made it clear that negotiations are heading in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, tensions flared between the U.S. and the European Union after Trump announced a plan to double steel tariffs to 50%. The EU warned that this move could inject more uncertainty into the global economy and drive up consumer costs on both sides of the Atlantic.

Despite the rocky start, markets found their footing. A short squeeze kicked in early and helped lift the major indexes into the green by the close.

In the bond market, yields climbed as hopes for a 2025 rate cut faded. The dollar slipped to its lowest level since July 2023.

Gold had a standout day—jumping 2.73% and breaking out of its downtrend channel—while silver surged an impressive 5.3%. Bitcoin stayed rangebound but held support around the $104K mark.

ZeroHedge shared an updated global liquidity chart (with a 3-month lag), hinting that if history repeats, bitcoin could be on a path toward $200K.

So, with all this volatility and momentum, are we looking at the start of a summer breakout—or just another head fake?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/30/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (159 vs. 181 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 30, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

STOCKS REBOUND IN MAY, BUT TRADE TENSIONS AND FISCAL FEARS LINGER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks stumbled out of the gate today after President Trump accused China of breaking its initial trade deal—rekindling fears of a renewed trade war. That headline alone was enough to rattle traders early on.

Adding fuel to the fire was the legal uncertainty surrounding the administration’s aggressive tariff plans.

A court ruling on Wednesday night temporarily blocked most of the tariffs, only for an appeals court to step in Thursday afternoon and keep them alive—at least for now. The back-and-forth has made it tough to see how or when a lasting U.S.-China trade agreement might happen.

On the bright side, the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge—the PCE—dropped to a four-year low. That could make it harder for Fed Chair Powell to justify holding off on more rate cuts.

Despite today’s turbulence, May turned out to be a strong month for equities. The S&P 500 bounced back with a +6.2% gain, clawing its way into positive territory for the year—barely—at +0.80%. Still, that’s a far cry from gold’s impressive +25% YTD surge.

Elsewhere, bond yields dipped for the week but rose for the month. The dollar slid for the fifth month in a row, while gold notched a modest fourth straight monthly gain.

Bitcoin stole the spotlight again, jumping 11% in May and hitting a new all-time high, thanks in part to strong inflows into BTC ETFs.

As ZeroHedge noted, even though trade policy uncertainty has eased a bit, concerns about U.S. fiscal stability and default risk are still hanging over the market.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/29/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, May 29, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +0.49% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Muted Gains As Trade Uncertainty Tempers Nvidia Rally

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Nvidia lit the fuse this morning with a strong earnings report, but the rally didn’t quite explode.

 While the chip giant’s results gave markets an early boost, excitement faded as traders turned their attention to trade policy uncertainty.

A federal court ruling struck down Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, saying he overstepped his authority—raising fresh doubts about how future trade negotiations might unfold.

Some analysts brushed it off as a “nothingburger,” and the market seemed to agree, ending the day with modest gains.

Looking at the broader picture, the April/May short squeeze appears to be losing steam.

Nvidia gave back more than half of its post-earnings pop, bond yields dipped (with the 7-year hitting a two-week low), and rate-cut expectations shifted—up for 2025, down for 2026.

The dollar softened, gold flirted with $3,350 but didn’t quite get there, and Bitcoin stumbled after an early surge, sliding toward $106K despite continued ETF inflows.

So, the big question now is: will tomorrow’s PCE inflation reading be soft enough to give the market a fresh reason to rally?

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Flat Trading Turns Sour After White House Chip Crackdown

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The markets treaded water today as investors played the waiting game ahead of some big news—most notably, Nvidia’s earnings report and the latest Fed meeting minutes.

Nvidia is set to report after the bell, and traders are watching closely, especially with growing concerns about how U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China might impact the AI giant. So far, demand for its powerful GPUs hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.

As for the Fed minutes? Pretty much a non-event. The language was vague, and there was no clear signal on what’s next for interest rates.

But just when it looked like the market might find its footing, news broke that the White House is pushing chipmakers to halt sales to China.

That sent a chill through the markets—stocks dipped, bond prices fell, gold and bitcoin slid, and the dollar was the only one left standing.

Now, all eyes are on Nvidia. Can its earnings turn things around tomorrow?

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