ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 1, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/10/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-10312013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 1, 2013

EKING OUT ANOTHER GAIN

It seems like nothing can keep this market down, at least not for very long as the major indexes recovered after two days of heading south. Despite improving economic data, it’s anyone’s guess if that could convince the Fed to taper its stimulus program. Personally, I don’t think we are anywhere near the point where the economy can grow strong enough organically for the Fed to take the foot off the pedal.

The major market indexes edged higher with the S&P 500 gaining 2 points over the past five trading days. With the benchmark index having added some 4.5% in October, a pause is certainly in order as we have gotten somewhat overbought.

368 of the S&P’s 500 companies have presented their scorecard for the 3rd quarter, of which 75% exceeded analysts’ profit predictions while 53% scored higher on sales than estimated.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/31/2013

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, October 31, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +4.69% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Ending October On A Down Note

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Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Domestic Equity Index ETFs finished a choppy trading session below the flat-line, as investors mulled a mixed bag of earnings and economic data along with yesterday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain its current pace of asset purchases.

While it was a second consecutive day of losses for the market, all three major indexes ended October with solid gains. Elsewhere, Treasuries were mixed following yesterday’s Fed decision and as a slightly higher-than-expected rate of weekly U.S. initial jobless claims was met with an unexpected jump in Midwest manufacturing activity. Finally, gold and crude oil prices dipped, while the U.S. dollar appreciated.

Stock indices spent most of the session near their respective flat lines. Trading volume was subdued until the last 30 minutes of action when a surge in trading activity sent equities to lows while pushing the final volume tally up. In earnings news, Dow member Visa posted inline quarterly results but offered some cautious commentary, and Starbucks beat the Street’s profit expectations, while issuing disappointing guidance. Moreover, Dow component Exxon Mobil Corp bested the Street’s estimates.

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Rally Ends After Fed’s Weak Growth Outlook

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Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

U.S. equity markets were unable to extend recent gains as stocks closed the trading session lower on the heels of yesterday’s record setting performances for the Dow and S&P. In economic news, the Federal Reserve announced no changes to its asset purchase program, leaving the target for the fed funds rate unchanged near zero.

Trading was volatile following the release of the statement, with the major U.S. stock indexes cutting losses to turn flat and dropping to session lows. Moreover, the ADP employment change report showed that private sector payrolls rose at a lower-than-forecasted rate, while separate reports showed consumer prices remained benign and weekly mortgage applications rose. Treasuries were mostly lower following the Fed statement and domestic data.

Although stocks slumped in reaction to the release, I want to point out that today’s weakness occurred after the S&P rallied more than 7.0% over the course of 15 sessions since October 8. Therefore, it is more likely the policy statement served as an excuse for the selling rather than a catalyst.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 10/29/2013

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Sideways meandering with an upward bias was the theme as the S&P 500 added another 1% during this final week of the month. It’s been a high performance October so far as pullbacks happened so fast that they could have been easily missed by those looking for an entry point.

The widely predicted sell off during this historically volatile month did not happen, which supports my ongoing theme that it’s wise to follow the major trends in the market place and not pay attention to broadly held opinions and guesses.

Economic data points remain inconclusive, which makes me believe that the Fed will not change its policy when they issue the verdict later on today.

In the meantime, here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Bulls Continue Record Run

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Despite a mixed bag of data from the earnings and economic fronts, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on the horizon, U.S. equities notched further gains today. The S&P 500 continued to set records and registered its fourth consecutive advance to extend its October gain to 5.4%. Treasuries finished unchanged following the deluge of data, gold and crude oil prices were lower, while the U.S. dollar was higher.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a modest advance of 0.3% after the exchange experienced an intraday data dissemination issue that prevented index quotes from being sent out for nearly an hour. However, the issue was isolated to the index while individual components traded normally.

One of the components that contributed to the Nasdaq’s underperformance was Apple. The largest tech stock lost 2.5% after its below-consensus gross margin guidance overshadowed its earnings beat on above-consensus revenue. Despite Apple’s relative weakness, the technology sector (+0.5%) ended in-line with the broader market, bolstered in part by the 2.7% gain in the shares of IBM after the company’s Board of Directors authorized an additional $15 billion for its share buyback program.

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