ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 29, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11272013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 29, 2013

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN SEEMS ALL BUT FORGOTTEN

Fri chart

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The factors behind stocks’ gains this week were perhaps more difficult to pin down than usual. One driver appeared to be a general sense that economic growth was improving, but not so fast as to encourage the Federal Reserve to slam on the brakes by tightening monetary policy. Stocks saw their biggest gains on Thursday, when the Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims had declined to levels last seen in September—and close to where they had been before the recession began in late 2007.

Perhaps one of the most important economic news stories of the week pertained to Barak Obama’s signature healthcare reform. The administration revealed Wednesday that online health insurance enrollment for small businesses will be delayed by a year. The opening of the online health exchange for small businesses had previously been delayed until the end of this month, but it has now been pushed back until November of 2014.

The government shutdown and fiscal problems seem all but forgotten though as the ETF markets rallied throughout November. The top non-leveraged ETFs over November include Global X China Financials ETF (CHIX) up 11.2%, SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH) up 10.5% and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) up 10.0%.  Chinese stocks are rising to a one-month high after Beijing pledged extensive economic, legal and social reforms.

Our ETFs in the spotlight confirm these trends, so let’s take a look:

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/27/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +5.06% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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A Cornucopia Of Upside On Thanksgiving

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Stockholders have plenty to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. And the day before the holiday gave them even more reason to be pleased. Both the Dow and S&P pushed into record territory yet again. At the same time, the Nasdaq hit its highest level since the tech bubble 13 years ago. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) led the push by climbing more than 9% after its earnings announcement.

On the economic front there was more reason to celebrate. The Labor Department says there were 316,000 new jobless claims filed last week. That was below the 330,000 which were expected. Meanwhile, a separate report showed durable goods orders fell 2% in October when expectations had been for a drop of 2.2%.

Iran and world powers entered into a preliminary six-month accord in which Iran would curb its nuclear activities in exchange for easing international sanctions on oil, auto parts, gold and precious metals.  If sanctions are lifted on Iran, it would add one million barrels per day of oil to world markets by next year and improve long-term oil supply conditions. The mixed sentiment has put oil ETFs in focus for the coming weeks. These ETFs might be easier plays for investors than trying to deal directly in the futures market.

Here is the latest update of our ETFs in the Spotlight:

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/26/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Over the past week, the major indexes pushed through milestones with the S&P 500 crossing 1,800 for the first time after the Dow breached the 16,000 mark while the Nasdaq pierced through 4,000.

As I have posted before, balanced portfolios were not the place to be throughout this year as bonds slipped into bear market territory while precious metals got taken out to barn and spanked in no uncertain terms.

That left equities as the #1 choice as demonstrated by the model portfolios, in which only the equity portions performed well while most other holdings lagged the major indexes severely. That is the problem when strictly sticking to a model when external circumstances, such reckless Fed stimulation and intervention, demonstrate that major trends lie elsewhere.

Hopefully, you adjusted your holdings as I did during the past year by dropping those non-performing parts of your portfolio. Given that Fed stimulus, in one form or another, is here to stay with us to prevent the markets from melting down, it pays to stick to those areas that are trending up.

In that sense, at least for the time being, the models are no longer a valid concept to follow, which is why I replaced them a month ago with the daily update of our “ETFs in the Spotlight.”

After today, the ETF model portfolio posts will be discontinued until such time that their validity can be reestablished again. We are in an era where unintended consequences due to Fed meddling in the markets can pop up anytime, which is why I believe it’s best to concentrate only on those asset classes with an established upward trend with the idea to ride it till it ends, at which time our sell stops will point the way to the exit doors.

Here’s the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Nasdaq Conquers 4,000; Gold-Mining ETFs Slip

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Stocks ended in the green, but just barely as traders took profits ahead of the holiday.  The Nasdaq composite index closed above 4,000 on Tuesday for the first time since 2000, while the Dow and S&P ended barely changed.  Retailers and homebuilders were among the best performing sectors, responding to stronger-than-expected earnings and robust housing market data.  Given the steady and solid performance of the stock market over the past couple of months, perhaps the take away here is that the whole partial government shutdown thing was a real non-event.  Trading is still expected to remain light this week, with financial markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Internationally, European stocks dipped on Tuesday, as corporate profit warnings and lower-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data kept benchmark indexes in ranges that were set earlier this month. With Europe’s earnings season drawing to an end, results have been disappointing. About half of companies missed profit forecasts and nearly two-thirds have missed revenue forecasts, according to data from Thomson Reuters StarMine.

Gold was all the roar in the ETF world today. We saw major gold-mining ETFs lose ground as the industry’s tango with the Federal Reserve continues. Concerns over the much-anticipated tapering (of quantitative easing) continue to keep downward pressure on gold prices, with the spot price off nearly 0.75 percent on Tuesday. Keep an eye out for the effects of the anticipated tapering on commodities such as gold in the weeks to come.

Here is the latest update of our ETFs in the Spotlight:

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Mixed Emotions

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The major indexes appeared to meander aimlessly with the Dow and Nasdaq edging slightly higher while the S&P 500 dropped late in the session to post a minor loss.

After breaking major milestones last week, the market looked a little tired as volume slowed down during this Holiday shortened week, which can easily exaggerate directional moves. The weekend deal between six global powers and Iran, to curb Teheran’s nuclear program had, while making headlines news, only a limited market effect as details still remain sketchy.

One immediate effect was a drop in oil prices which, should they last, will have a positive economic effect. Most of our ETFs in the spotlight came off their highs by a small margin, while two of them made new highs.

Let’s take a look:

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