One Man’s Opinion: Will US Growth Will Pick Up Next Year?

Ulli Market Review Contact

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The economic recovery will not be as good as it has been historically after recessions, but the economy will do better than what it has done recently, said Maury Harris, managing director and chief US economist at UBS. There have been a number of problems that have been holding back growth and probably won’t be as harmful next year. From a historical standpoint, this isn’t normal, Maury said.

There was a modest increase in consumer spending recently. Asked if that means people have more disposable income or they are simply using credit to pay for basic necessities, Maury said a couple of things are going on simultaneously now.

Firstly, incomes are not going up that fast, but neither are prices. So whatever people are making can be stretched further. Secondly, the latest report shows people have started to borrow again. Also, for people who own home, there has been a nice turnaround in house prices; a phenomenon that economists call the “wealth effect.” So there has been a couple of factors that have been pushing up consumer spending, he explained.

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New ETFs On The Block: Wisdomtree’s Germany Hedged Equity ETF (DXGE)

Ulli Hedge Fund ETF Contact

91551519While the eurozone is still struggling with high joblessness and shrinking economies, Germany, the European Monetary Union’s largest economy, continues to amaze by remaining competitive and notching up respectable growth quarter-on-quarter.

Exports, which contribute more than 50 percent of German economic output, is likely to benefit further going forward from a broader global recovery.

WisdomTree, the New York-based exchange-traded fund issuer known for its line-up of currency-hedged products, has decided to leverage the German growth story through the launch of the Germany Hedged Equity Fund (DXGE). The fund employs hedging strategies to mitigate the risk of unpredictable currency movements that tend to affect returns.

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11-08-2013

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 8, 2013

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11072013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 8, 2013

BULLS SMILE BRINGING A HEARTY SALUTE TO VETERANS DAY

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The major indexes all closed on a bullish note today rebounding 1%+ as the weekly chart above shows.  Stocks were higher on the week, led by the increase in basic materials stocks.  Equity ETF funds saw substantial outflows last week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs.

In corporate news, Twitter and BlackBerry represented two extremes. Twitter’s much anticipated IPO was a soaring success. Not only was it 100% glitch-free, which was a major focus after Facebook’s IPO faced technical problems last year, but more important, the social media firm’s shares soared, rising 73% from the initial price of $26 per share.

Although Twitter still hasn’t turned a profit, millions of investors are betting on its potential.

In contrast, BlackBerry’s executives’ faces turned red, as the once-dominant Smartphone maker continued to stumble, unable to attract financing for a planned $4.7 billion sale

The U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October, much more than the 125,000 expected. However, the unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in October from 7.2% in September.

While market volatility could certainly resurface at any time, it’s interesting to note that years with returns over 20% during the first 10 months continued that strong performance through the end of the year, historically recording a return of about 6% the last two months.

Let’s look at the ETFs in the spotlight:

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

In other words, all of them never triggered their 7.5% sell stop level during this time period, which included a variety of severe market pullbacks but no move into outright bear market territory.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

All of them are in “buy” mode meaning their prices are above their respective long term trend lines by the percentage indicated (%M/A).

Now let’s look at the MaxDD% column and review the ETF with the lowest drawdown as an example. As you can see, that would be XLY with the lowest MaxDD% number of -5.73%, which occurred on 11/15/2012.

The recent sell off in the month of June did not affect XLY at all as its “worst” MaxDD% of -5.73% still stands since the November 2012 sell off.

A quick glance at the last column showing the date of occurrences confirms that five of these ETFs had their worst drawdown in November 2012, while the other five were affected by the June 2013 swoon, however, none of them dipped below their -7.5% sell stop.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

With Thursday’s sell off and Friday’s rebound, only SPY managed to close at new highs for the year as the “Off High” column shows. All others have pulled back slightly.

3. Domestic Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Trend wise, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped but remain above their long term trend lines by the following percentages:

Domestic TTI: +3.98% (last week +4.33%)

International TTI: +6.48% (last week +7.37%)

Have a great week.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Ron:

Q: Ulli: With the daily commentary changes mentioned this week, will the fund tracker and cutline reports no longer be published or accessible? Thanks, and I truly enjoy reading your articles.

A: Ron: No, all reports will remain the same as before; the new commentary is simply an enhancement. You were probably looking for the StatSheet Thursday night; I got behind schedule and posted it this morning.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 8, 2013

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11072013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 8, 2013

BULLS SMILE BRINGING A HEARTY SALUTE TO VETERANS DAY

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The major indexes all closed on a bullish note today rebounding 1%+ as the weekly chart above shows.  Stocks were higher on the week, led by the increase in basic materials stocks.  Equity ETF funds saw substantial outflows last week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs.

In corporate news, Twitter and BlackBerry represented two extremes. Twitter’s much anticipated IPO was a soaring success. Not only was it 100% glitch-free, which was a major focus after Facebook’s IPO faced technical problems last year, but more important, the social media firm’s shares soared, rising 73% from the initial price of $26 per share.

Although Twitter still hasn’t turned a profit, millions of investors are betting on its potential.

In contrast, BlackBerry’s executives’ faces turned red, as the once-dominant Smartphone maker continued to stumble, unable to attract financing for a planned $4.7 billion sale

The U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October, much more than the 125,000 expected. However, the unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in October from 7.2% in September.

While market volatility could certainly resurface at any time, it’s interesting to note that years with returns over 20% during the first 10 months continued that strong performance through the end of the year, historically recording a return of about 6% the last two months.

Let’s look at the ETFs in the spotlight:

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/07/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 7, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.77% after briefly dipping below it late in June 2013.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Markets Turn Red, But Twitter Stays Ahead

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Markets tumbled the most in a month as soft consumer spending growth in the third-quarter raised questions about the overall strength of the economic recovery. The BetaPro MSCI Emerging Markets Bull+ & Bear+ ETF shares are currently trading down about 3.3% on the day. Overshadowing disappointing headlines was Twitter’s more than 70% rise on the day of its initial public offering. Turn that frown upside down Facebook!

Stocks were gaining in pre-market trading as the European Central Bank slashed its benchmark interest rate to stimulate growth in the region. The bank lowered borrowing costs to a record low of 0.25% as policymakers continue fight deflation and weak growth rates across the Eurozone.

Keep a look out for some expected market moving events coming up next week.  France is the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, and the fifth-largest in the world. With 10% unemployment and an expected 0.5% growth rate, this Sunday’s French presidential election could have major consequences for the Eurozone.

Let’s review the ETFs in the spotlight:

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