Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/27/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 27, 2014

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If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +2.62%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

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Major Market Indexes Continue Backtracking; Office For iPad?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

U.S. stocks fell today, erasing most of the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain, as banking and technology stocks led the selloff. The S&P 500 lost 0.19%, the Dow dipped 0.03% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.54%. The S&P was able to remain above 1,840 though, which has become a benchmark support level recently.

New data released today showed that the U.S. economy grew a bit faster than previously estimated in the Q4 2013, while new claims for jobless benefits dropped to a near four-month low last week. But contracts to buy previously owned homes fell in February to their lowest level since October 2011.

Concerns about the effect of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and global supplies helped push crude oil prices and the S&P energy index (SPNY) higher. In addition, Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) gained 1.6% to $96.24 after Bank of America Merrill Lynch boosted its rating on the stock to “buy”.

All of you Apple (AAPL) addicts out there who have been disgruntled at the fact that you could never use Microsoft Office products on your tablet can finally rejoice because Microsoft unveiled Office for iPad today. At a news conference, executives demonstrated a new “touch-first” version of Office crafted for the iPad, available for download as a free app, though a subscription is needed to let users create or edit documents rather than just read them. Analysts have estimated that Microsoft (MSFT) could rake in anywhere from $840 million to $6.7 billion a year in revenue from an iPad-native Office.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight went nowhere with 6 of them remaining on the plus side YTD.

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Heading Down A Slippery Slope

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The markets continued their predictable pattern of being inconsistent today. After starting the day higher following an encouraging report on orders for manufactured goods, stocks drifted lower in afternoon trading Wednesday and gave up their gains from a day earlier. Facebook (FB) led the technology sector lower as investors gave the company’s latest acquisition the thumbs-down. The S&P 500 index fell the most in two weeks and is now flat for the year.

Healthcare was the only industry sector to rise today. Tenet Healthcare (THC) rose 5.2% to $40.93 and Quest Diagnostic (DGX) rose 5.6% to $57.99. Many analysts are saying that hospitals and medical device companies are attractive because they have steady revenue streams.

In banking, Citigroup (C) fell 5.3% to $47.50 in after-hours trading after the Federal Reserve turned down the bank’s plan to spend $6.4 billion buying back its own stock and increasing its quarterly dividend from 1 cent to 5 cents.

The United States and the European Union agreed to work together to prepare possible tougher economic sanctions in response to Russia’s behavior in Ukraine. The sanctions could possibly include the energy sector. And thus, the S&P energy sector index (^SPNY) slipped 0.3% today.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed the trend of the indexes; however, 7 of them are remaining on the plus side YTD.

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Markets Remain Bumpy; FB Makes Another Acquisition

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Equities bounced back today from a previous two day decline. Investors reacted well to a favorable reading on consumer confidence that showed positive signs of growth for the U.S. economy. All of the major indexes gained as the chart above shows. Additionally, nine of the ten industry groups in the S&P 500 ended the day higher. Industrial stocks rose the most, 0.9%, followed by the energy and health care sectors, which each gained 0.8%.

In tech news, Facebook (FB) announced today that it has agreed to buy Oculus, a virtual reality technology company, for $2 billion. Facebook Inc. said that the deal includes $400 million in cash and 23.1 million shares worth about $1.6 billion. Facebook’s stock ended the day up 1.23%. Oculus employees are also eligible for an additional $300 million if the company achieves certain targets. Oculus makes the Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset that’s received a lot of attention from video game developers, though it’s yet to be released.

The market has been alternating between gains and losses for the most of the month, with investors buying back stocks after every dip. While some are confident that economic growth will accelerate following an unusually harsh winter, others are reluctant to push stock prices too much higher before seeing more clear-cut evidence that the economy is picking up. To avoid not having to play the guessing game, we will simply continue to follow the long-term trends; after all, they appear to be the only true measure as to the direction of equities.

While the consumer confidence report was favorable, I also heard today that fewer people bought new homes in February and that home sales fell to the slowest pace in five months.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed north with 7 of them remaining on the plus side YTD.

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Stocks Start The Week On A Down Note; Tech And Healthcare To Blame

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

U.S. stocks took a tumble today, with the Nasdaq realizing its biggest daily percentage drop since early February, as some of the market’s recent best performers like technology and biotech shares led the way down. Weakness in the health care sector (XLV) also dragged the U.S. stock market lower. Pharmaceuticals got spanked again, and we got stopped out of our holdings in PJP as its momentum weakend considerably over the past 30 days.

The S&P 500 index fell 0.5%, the Dow lost 0.2% and the tech focused Nasdaq composite fell 1.2%. Almost 80 percent of the stocks traded on the Nasdaq were lower, while about two-thirds of New York Stock Exchange-listed shares fell. Eight of the 10 S&P 500 sectors slid for the day.

In stocks, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) dropped $6.67 to $378.90 on potential competition from Apple Inc. (AAPL). The Wall Street Journal reported that the iPhone and iPad maker is in talks with Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) to release a TV set-top box. The stock price of Apple gained 1.19% to $539.19 per share while Comcast rose 0.60% to $50.30 per share today. Herbalife Ltd (HLF) said it would allow three more representatives of billionaire investor Carl Icahn, the company’s biggest shareholder, to join its board. Shares of the nutrition and weight-loss company jumped 7.7 percent to $53.35.

In the latest snapshot of the US economy, financial data firm Markit said its preliminary read on March manufacturing activity slowed after nearing a four-year high last month. Markit, however, said the rate of growth and the pace of hiring remained strong.

Ukraine announced the evacuation of its troops from Crimea, essentially yielding the region to Russian forces, which seized a Ukrainian marine base. While few US companies have excessive exposure to the region, investors are concerned about the potential economic fallout from any escalation in tensions.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped with 7 of them remaining on the plus side YTD.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 03/21/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 356 (last week 361) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 67 ETFs (last week 70) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 727 (last week 706) above the line and 122 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.