ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For March 21, 2014

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2014/03/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-03202014/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

Friday, March 21, 2014

EQUITY INDEXES LOSE STEAM BUT GAIN FOR THE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Equities were bouncing back this week but metals aren’t keeping up. More important is Janet Yellen’s statement indicating that interest rates could rise sooner than expected. The unemployment rate, though manipulated, is still higher than what the FED would regard as ‘full employment.’

The big news item for the week was Wednesday’s announcement by newly appointed Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen indicating that interest rates could go up sooner than previously expected. While Wall Street had been anticipating the Fed to raise rates for quite some time, the ambiguous manner in which Yellen addressed the issue sent stocks and bonds tumbling. Adding to the vagueness were other mitigating factors that could play into the Fed’s decision making process, namely the unemployment rate which currently stands at 6.7 percent, well above the 5.2 to 5.6 percent range Fed officials see as in keeping with full employment.

Domestic markets aren’t quite in the same Q1 stride as we experienced in 2013. In the first quarter 2013, advancing days exceeded declining days by nearly 61%. For 2014, that ratio is down to 16%, and with only 7 more sessions remaining for the current quarter, there’s not much room for improvement. That means it’s important to have your sell stop discipline in place in case momentum goes the other way, and the markets decide to head south.

Geopolitical issues remained in focus this week after President Vladimir V. Putin signed laws completing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and investors were unnerved by a decision by the United States to slap sanctions on his inner circle. Russia’s MICEX stock index was down 1 percent.

Gold and the rest of the precious metals complex has been taking some hard hits this week, scaring off would-be investors from diverting capital into the traditional safe-haven asset. While the yellow metal is down below a key support level of $1,350, it is also up 9% for the quarter, a performance that is 6-times that of the aforementioned large-cap equities sector.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight edged higher with 1 of them making a new high today while 7 of them are remaining on the plus side YTD.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 03/20/2014

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, March 20, 2014

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.65%.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune in for the latest updates.

Read More

U.S. Markets Recover Wednesdays Drop; Sanctions On Russia

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The stock market had a “spring” in its step on the first day of spring. Signs that the U.S. economy is emerging from a winter slump drove major stock indexes higher today. Investors were encouraged by an increase in manufacturing and a rise in a key index of economic indicators. The S&P 500 came within a fraction of a point of wiping out all of its losses from a day earlier to finish the day up 0.6%.

The market had slumped yesterday, when Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested that the central bank could start raising interest rates sooner than many investors had expected. How would interest rate hikes hurt our economy? Higher interest rates could hold companies back from borrowing to expand their businesses or discourage consumers from taking out loans such as mortgages, that’s how.

Microsoft (MSFT) was among the big gainers. The stock climbed 2.7 percent, after analysts at Morgan Stanley said a rumored plan to make a version of its Office software available for iPad devices could generate $1.2 billion in annual revenue. Guess (GES) slumped 3.4% after the apparel maker reported lower quarterly income and predicted a loss for the current period. And finally, ConAgra Foods (CAG) rose 1.4 percent, after the company said its latest quarterly earnings nearly doubled. It continues to benefit from the acquisition of private-label food maker Ralcorp.

Of course, we all know that the Crimea conflict has been at the top of the news banners all week. But, how will the sanctions placed on Russia impact financial markets?  The Russian stock market has tanked 10 percent this month, wiping out billions in market capitalization.

Economists have slashed growth forecasts to zero this year and foreign investors have been pulling money out of Russian banks. Investors took $35 billion out of Russia in January and February – about half as much as in the entire preceding year. The EU’s gas market will likely suffer most from the sanctions against Russia, because it imports a third of its gas from Russia and has strong trades ties. It is also the world’s largest exporter of industrial metals, making exports from companies like Severstal crucial for global producers whether they are making cars or airplanes. Also, remember that European companies exported $170 billion to Russia in 2012. So if they were told to curb or stop their exports to Russia, they would suffer huge losses.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight inched higher with 7 of them remaining on the plus side YTD while one of them made new highs for the year.

Read More

Markets Dislike Yellen’s Update; China Concerns Remain

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

Investors weren’t too thrilled by what they heard from Janet Yellen during her first meeting in charge of the Fed. U.S. stock markets backed off today amid worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve could end up raising interest rates as soon as the spring of next year. The greenback and U.S. Treasury yields appreciated sharply after the Fed announcement while the major indexes dropped as the chart above shows.

Worries about China have sent copper prices reeling, falling more than 7% since March 6 in the wake of tepid economic data, while the base metals sector has dropped well over 6% this month. Deutsche Bank said earlier this week that heightened market volatility in the Chinese RMB currency market, alongside China’s first domestic bond default, have sparked market fears that commodity financing deals in China could unravel. Such an event has the potential to also result in widespread metals liquidation. Optimism that the Ukraine crisis won’t worsen pushed gold prices down $17.70 to $1,341.30, sending the gold sector about three per cent lower.

In corporate news, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) sold its physical commodities business for $3.5 billion, after new regulations crimped its ability to control power plants, warehouses, and oil refineries.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed south as well with 7 of them still remaining on the plus side YTD.

Read More

Food…Get It While It’s HOT…And Cheap

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

The markets continued their upward trend from Monday, as the chart above shows, with all major indexes ending on the plus side.

The big news today included a surge in U.S. food prices on the horizon, Russia annexing Crimea, and a Microsoft swell to near-record levels not seen since 2000.

The Wall Street Journal reports that retail U.S. food prices may increase as much as 3.5% this summer, threatening to exacerbate an already-tepid economic recovery. Prices are set to increase for multiple staples, including coffee, vegetables, and meat. The price increase would be the largest in three years, as international demand rises and the California drought continues to affect supplies.

This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty to place the Ukrainian region of Crimea under Moscow’s domain over objections from U.S. President Barack Obama and a number of leaders in Europe. Russia will take control of the region, which is of cultural and military importance to the world’s largest nation. This news today seemed to sooth investor anxiety over escalated tensions between the two countries.

Shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) gained 3.94% today. The jump comes after reports emerged that new CEO Satya Nadella will unveil an iPad app on March 27. The release will be Nadella’s first public appearance since his January appointment and will center on Microsoft’s “mobile first, cloud first” strategy that will be the hallmark of the CEO’s tenure. The last time that Microsoft hit $40 was in July 2000.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed upward momentum with 7 of them showing gains YTD while 2 of them made new highs again.

Read More

Equities Back On Track As U.S. Data Remains Strong

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving The Markets

U.S. equities climbed today, with the S&P 500 bouncing from its worst weekly drop in the past seven, as concerns eased over the situation in Crimea, while economic data indicated the economy was improving after a winter slowdown. The geopolitical tension had weighed on equities last week, with the S&P 500 falling 2 percent and the CBOE Volatility index (VIX) jumping to its highest since early February on Friday.

Economically-sensitive sectors led the way higher on Monday, with both technology and industrials up 1.3 percent. Google Inc gained 1.6 percent to $1,192.10 while General Electric Co (GE) rose 1.3% to $25.43. In the latest economic data, manufacturing output recorded its largest increase in six months in February and factory activity in New York state expanded early this month. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s massive stimulus has helped keep a floor under equity prices, and I am looking ahead to the outcome of a two-day meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting committee, which begins Tuesday.

In company news, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd said on Sunday it would begin the process toward a U.S. initial public offering, ending months of speculation. Shares of Yahoo Inc (YHOO), which has a 24% stake in the company, jumped 4% to $39.11, one of the best performers on the benchmark S&P index.

General Motors Co. (GM) is recalling 1.55 million vans, sedans and sport-utility vehicles, citing concerns over brakes, seat belts and air bags, adding to 1.6 million cars recalled this year due to faulty ignition switches. The automaker also said it expects about $300 million in expenses in the first quarter to cover the cost of repairs for the more than 3 million vehicles. Ouch!

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight rallied with 7 of them showing gains YTD while 2 of them made new highs.

Read More