A Shaky Start Followed By A Strong Finish

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

After slumping early one, the major indexes managed to climb out of a hole and, with the exception of the Dow, managed to squeeze out a tiny gain.

Not helping matters early on were worse than expected jobless claims numbers, which followed last week’s disappointing labor market report. Crude oil finally found a reason to turn around by gaining over 1% after having lost some 3% for the month.

Right now, it appears that the market is stuck in a tight range after having shown some decent gains for the year. Possibly, some time maybe needed for this relentless move up to cool off before a new catalyst can take the markets to a higher level.

On the other hand, the ever growing menu of geopolitical tensions may prove to be a glass ceiling so the downside risk is ever present, especially with so much complacency in the market place. I have not said it in a while, but have your exit strategy in place and be ready to execute, should the major trend turn bearish all of a sudden.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight edged up; however, no new highs were made.

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Stocks Get Over The Hump On Hump Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks rebounded today from two straight days of losses. All major indexes advanced. Notable gains on the Nasdaq seemed to be led by Apple (AAPL), as its shares headed back up 3.1% to rise above the $100 mark again. Yesterday, Apple’s stock went on a wild ride throughout its numerous product announcements, but today the stock seemed to regain its footing again and stabilize.

Dollar General (DG) was back in headlines today as its pending takeover of Family Dollar (FDO) officially became hostile, as Dollar General decided to take its $9.1 billion takeover directly to Family Dollar shareholders. Family Dollar’s corporate board seems to be leaning more towards the offer from its other competitor, Dollar Tree (DLTR).

Monday, I touched briefly on the latest downward trend in oil prices. Well, today we received further confirmation that the trend continues as we heard that weekly oil inventory numbers show a huge build up in inventory. Brent crude oil remains below $100/barrel and is now at a 17-month low.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight gained, 1 was unchanged and 1 made a new yearly high. Take a look at the tables below.

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Equities Continue To Trend Lower Despite Apple’s Day Of Announcements

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Domestic equities fell for a second straight day as the Dow dropped almost 100 points, the S&P 500 slid back below 2000 and the Nasdaq fell 0.88%.

Apple (AAPL) stole many headlines today as it released numerous announcements about new and upcoming product releases. The stock bounced up and down all day as investors showed a mixed bag of emotions about the 2015 release of its smartwatch, as well as the upcoming release of the next generation of iPhones. For the day, shares lost about 0.4%.

Apart from Apple’s announcements, the “hacker” news from Home Depot (HD) didn’t help the market either. Home Depot fell about 2% to $88.93 after the home improvement chain said hackers had broken into its in-store payment systems. From Target, to JP Morgan and now to Home Depot, there is an increasing trend that is raising concerns that other large corporations will be next.

Internationally, stocks were lower in Europe with Germany’s DAX index down 0.5% and France’s CAC 40 index also falling 0.5%. Asian stock markets were muted amid holidays in Hong Kong and South Korea. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.3% to 15,749.15.

With the slide in the major indexes, it was no surprise that all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight retreated as well.

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Stocks Start Off The Week Sub-Par As Oil Prices Fall

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

The markets ended the day somewhat mixed as the S&P dropped 0.3%, but stayed above the 2000 mark. The Dow also fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq gained a slight 0.2%

In corporate news, Yahoo (YHOO) shares rose 5.6% after we heard today that Alibaba filed for its initial public offering and started its investor ‘road show.’ Remember, Yahoo owns a 23% stake in Alibaba!

Also, we heard today that General Mills (GIS) announced it will acquire organic food producer Annie’s (BNNY) for around $820 MM. Best known for its the rabbit-shaped mac and cheese, Annie’s reported $204 million in net sales during its latest fiscal year, up about 20 percent from a year earlier.

The oil industry stole a couple of headlines today. Even with geopolitical tensions as high as they have been over the past couple of months, the price of oil has been coming down. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in 16 months today, supposedly driven lower by the fall in China’s growth in imports.

Two of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight closed up and made new highs at the same time.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/05/2014

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 349 (last week 354) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 76 ETFs (last week 75) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 796 (last week 797) above the line and 54 below it out of the 850 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report     

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will The ECB’s Surprise Interest Rate Cuts Be Followed By QE?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431European Central Bank President Mario Draghi surprised markets by announcing cuts in all the three main interest rates after inflation weakened further to a 0.3 percent annual rate in the euro area.

A full-fledged quantitative easing might be unveiled after starting off with asset-backed securities – what Draghi calls “simple transparent ones,” said Kit Juckes, Global Strategist at Societe Generale. The initial purchases are likely to be mortgage-backed debt, commercial mortgage-backed debt, credit card debt and so on.

That’s the first step that gets the eurozone economy up and running. In the next few months Draghi may try to persuade Bundesbank chief Jens Weidman and others to allow him to expand the QE in the general direction of European government bonds too to get at the meat where there is much, much more debt that he can buy into. However, Draghi has made it clear that the ECB won’t be buying complicated debt such as the junior structures of CDO and CDO squared of asset-backed securities, he noted.

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