ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/16/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 217 (last week 237) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 38 ETFs (last week 34) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 223 (last week 298) above the line and 597 below it out of the 846 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will The US Economy Face Headwinds In 2015 Due To Global Weakness?

Ulli Market Review Contact

92835431The US economy may face headwinds in 2015 and could struggle to sustain last year’s momentum due to global uncertainties despite the World Bank upgrading US growth forecast to 3.2 percent from an earlier estimate of 3 percent, said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Advantage Funds.

The US may be an island unto itself when it comes to growth, but it still is inter-connected. Global weakness is likely to spillover into the US, through the country’s exports and hurt companies that generate a chunk of their revenues from abroad.

Some of the data coming out this week, including the real average hourly-wage – particularly the weekly wages portion that showed a growth rate of 1.6 percent or so, was really not consistent with an annual growth rate of 3.2-3.5 percent for 2015, he added.

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New ETFs On The Block: Kraneshares E Fund China Commercial Paper ETF (KCNY)

Ulli Bond ETFs, International ETFs Contact

91551549KraneShares, the New York-based exchange-traded fund issuing-arm of China-focused boutique asset management company Krane Fund Advisors, recently unveiled one of the more innovative products launched in the last couple of years, and is likely to find favor with yield hungry investors in the fixed-income space.

The newly launched KraneShares E Fund China Commercial Paper ETF (KCNY) seeks exposure in a specific niche in China’s $4.5 trillion “onshore” bond market: Commercial Papers (CP).

Although the new fund is the third China onshore bond ETF to debut in the US in the span of a month, KCNY is unique in that it is the first commercial-paper ETF to trade in the US. Commercial papers are short-term debt instruments with a maturity of less than a year.

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01-16-2015

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For January 16, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01152015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 16, 2015

STOCKS BREAK FIVE-DAY LOSING STREAK TO END THE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks broke out of a slump today as we saw the Dow gain almost 200 points. While the comeback was well received, it was not enough to keep all three major indexes out of negative territory for the week.

In economic news, retail sales in December fell 0.9% from November, which was worse than expected, although most of the decline was due to falling gasoline prices. However, results excluding gas prices still declined slightly, contrary to expectations for a modest increase. Compared with the year prior, retail sales are up 4.1%.

Fourth-quarter earnings season is picking up into the busiest period. So far results have been good, and analysts believe solid earnings growth should continue into 2015 on the back of strengthened consumer attitudes and employment growth.

Coming up next week, markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, and it is a rather slow week for economic data. Housing activity will likely be in focus with the release of housing starts, the FHFA house price index, and existing home sales. Perhaps most of the focus will be on Europe, as the European Central Bank is widely anticipated to announce additional monetary easing in the form of bond purchases on Thursday.

For a change, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed north joining the major indexes; Healthcare (XLV) took the top spot with a gain of +1.88% for the day. 4 of the 10 ETFs listed are now on the plus side YTD as section 2 below shows.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For more ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

For the week, our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) seemed to have barely changed but when viewed on a daily basis we saw quite some volatility which, in the end, was neutralized due to today’s rebound.

Here’s how we ended this week:

Domestic TTI: +2.20% (last Friday +2.43%)—Buy signal since 10/22/2014

International TTI: -1.93% (last Friday -2.19%)—New Sell signal effective 12/15/14

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

Reader Chris:

Q: Ulli: I have a question re: the ETF XLV. The XLV is one of your listed Top 10 Spotlight funds and quite a good one for the last several years. I read that it has a low Beta, which I like. My question is with the recent shift in power in the US Senate and Congress toward the GOP, if someday Obamacare does get repealed (or even just the threat of it), could this once considered relatively low risk – low beta XLV then become much more volatile with probable downside to its price?

Thanks and best regards.

A: Chris: Yes, XLV has been a great performer, which we have held for a long time. During the recent October market debacle, I ended up selling and repurchasing it after the whipsaw signal we experienced.

Sure, there is a possibility that XLV will suffer if Obamacare gets repealed. Should that happen, I will follow the same approach that I always do, namely let market activity determine my course of action, just as mentioned above.

There is no sense in worrying what might or might not happen, simply let the trends be your guide and apply your trailing sell stops when necessary. In the meantime, I expect to get some more mileage out of this holding.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For January 16, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/01/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-01152015/

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Market Commentary

Friday, January 16, 2015

STOCKS BREAK FIVE-DAY LOSING STREAK TO END THE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks broke out of a slump today as we saw the Dow gain almost 200 points. While the comeback was well received, it was not enough to keep all three major indexes out of negative territory for the week.

In economic news, retail sales in December fell 0.9% from November, which was worse than expected, although most of the decline was due to falling gasoline prices. However, results excluding gas prices still declined slightly, contrary to expectations for a modest increase. Compared with the year prior, retail sales are up 4.1%.

Fourth-quarter earnings season is picking up into the busiest period. So far results have been good, and analysts believe solid earnings growth should continue into 2015 on the back of strengthened consumer attitudes and employment growth.

Coming up next week, markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, and it is a rather slow week for economic data. Housing activity will likely be in focus with the release of housing starts, the FHFA house price index, and existing home sales. Perhaps most of the focus will be on Europe, as the European Central Bank is widely anticipated to announce additional monetary easing in the form of bond purchases on Thursday.

For a change, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight headed north joining the major indexes; Healthcare (XLV) took the top spot with a gain of +1.88% for the day. 4 of the 10 ETFs listed are now on the plus side YTD as section 2 below shows.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 01/15/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, January 15, 2015

TOC 121514

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +1.91% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

Read More