Markets Fairly Quiet To Kick Off Q4

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended mixed after cutting early losses as Wall Street kicked off the fourth quarter with investors struggling to put the worst quarterly decline in four years behind them.

Wall Street is heading into the final three months of the year still trying to gauge the impact of a slowing economy in China and the impact of coming interest rate hikes on assets ranging from stocks to bonds to commodities. Most investors are waiting for positive signs on both fronts.

In economic news, data showed U.S. manufacturing growth stagnated in September, weighed down by a stronger dollar and weaker overseas demand. A separate report showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose last week, while the overall trend still reflects a strengthening labor market. U.S. Treasuries were lower today.

5 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight managed to close higher during this see-saw day. Healthcare (XLV) took top billing with +1.01%, while the Dividend ETF (DVY) did not fare well and lost -0.63%.

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Markets Up—But Stocks Worst Qtr In 4 Years

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended sharply higher on the last day of a rough third quarter, but that shouldn’t overshadow the fact that Wall Street still posted its worst quarterly performance in four years, a quarter in which both of our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) closed below their long-term trend lines, and in bear market territory, causing us to go into an all cash position for the time being.

We have now witnessed the first 10% correction in the major stock indexes since 2011, as worries of an economic slowdown in China and angst over interest rate policy and when the Federal Reserve will hike rates has taken a toll.

The rally on Wednesday (or was it a dead cat bounce?) was helped by encouraging news about the labor market. Businesses added 200,000 private sector jobs in September, according to a report by payroll processor ADP.

However grim this quarter has been, many investors are turning the other cheek in saying that solid third quarter earnings reports and stability in China could turn markets around in a heartbeat. Possible, but I just don’t think that hope is a good investment strategy to justify this kind of optimism.

With the bulls clearly in charge on the last day of September, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight rallied with the lead dog being Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) with a gain of +2.66%, while Consumer Staples (XLP) lagged with +0.95%.

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Equities Finally Hold Ground On Healthcare Stocks And Consumer Confidence

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended in mixed territory after choppy trading as Wall Street staged a partial rebound from Monday’s sharp sell-off that edged the U.S. market closer to its 2015 lows hit in late August. The S&P 500 and Dow both stayed in positive territory, while the Nasdaq slipped further into the red.

Markets were steadied today by a rebound in healthcare stocks. Pharmaceutical companies Biogen (BIIB) and Vertex (VRTX) notched the largest gainers on the day. Drug manufacturer stocks have been weak recently due to concerns that new legislation will introduce price controls throughout the industry.

We also heard some favorable news on the economy today from a report that showed consumers grew more confident in September despite increased market volatility. The September reading on consumer confidence rose to 103, which is the highest since January.

Finally, 8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight showed some green numbers for a change with the leader of the day being yesterday’s big loser, namely Healthcare (XLV), with +0.92%. On the downside, Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) was the weakest with -0.33%.

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Bearish Momentum Accelerates

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks tumbled, for the 5th day in a row, to kick off the new week in the red, as Wall Street reacted to fresh data showing China’s economy is in slowdown mode, overshadowing a big deal in the hard-hit energy patch. Blue chips comprising the Dow temporarily ducked below 16,000 at one point, the first time the index has fallen below that mark since Aug. 25.

The latest hit to investor sentiment was a continued drop in Chinese Industrial profits, which fell 8.8% in August vs. the same period a year ago. This is just the latest data point out of the world’s second-biggest economy that suggests economic softening. Also adding to the market’s angst is a 20% plunge in shares of global commodity giant Glencore.

U.S. investors got some good news on the economic data front today, with August consumer spending rising 0.4% and personal income up 0.3%.

The discussion about whether an official bear market is coming has picked up in the financial press, but in this corner we’ve identified it as of 8/21/15 and 8/24/15 respectively, at which time we went to 100% cash. So far, it’s been the right move, and odds are high that things could get a lot worse. Of course, dead cat bounces are always part of hovering on the bearish side of the trend line, so I’d expect to seem some along the way.

As far as resistance levels for the S&P 500 is concerned, 1,862 is the one to watch. If that one does not hold, very likely we’ll be slipping towards the 1,820s.

None of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight showed any resistance to the continued sell-off with our favorite holding of the past 2 years now turning into a big loser, namely Healthcare (XLV), which got spanked at the tune of -3.87%; just for the day. It simply goes to show you the value of a sell-stop discipline, as all high fliers will eventually correct and usually at a faster rate than they went up.

Holding up the best in today’s slide were Consumer Staples (XLP), which only gave back -1.50%.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 09/25/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 381 ETFs, of which currently 10 (last week 28) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 3 ETFs (last week 6) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 17 (last week 36) above the line and 783 below it out of the 800 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Will Higher Home Prices Drive US Inflation?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManMarket observers would not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in October or December this year because historically the US central bank has been sensitive to international concerns, said Bill Smead, CEO and CIO of Smead Capital Management.

Many times in the past the Fed has been sensitive to what has been going in Asia or Latin America, and thanks to the recent developments in Brazil and China, caution prevails.

While Fed Chair did mention China in the FOMC meeting, she didn’t mention China even once during her speech Thursday. Asked to comment, Bill said the Fed probably inferred if they’d raise interest rates in the middle of market turbulence the dollar may become extremely strong and set the ground for some more commotion, which would trigger another race to the bottom in the world of currency participants.

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