ETF Tracker Newsletter For February 14, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

STOCKS, BITCOIN, AND GOLD RISE DESPITE INFLATION CONCERNS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes paused early on as traders digested this week’s gains, most of which were generated yesterday.

President Trump’s memorandum outlining a plan for reciprocal tariffs on goods from countries with duties on U.S. products boosted sentiment for equities. The delayed implementation of these tariffs provided additional optimism. The tech sector benefited the most, with the Nasdaq leading the charge for the week.

Traders were also relieved that the CPI and PPI reports, although hotter than expected, suggest a softer upcoming reading for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

However, concerns about stagflation—rising inflation coupled with lower growth—resurfaced as core retail sales and manufacturing activity for January both declined, contrary to expectations.

Despite these mixed signals, the week ended positively with stocks, Bitcoin, and gold moving higher, although gold faced some pressure today. Bond yields and the dollar were lower as rate-cut expectations rebounded.

The mega-cap tech sector broke out of its trading range, partly due to Meta’s impressive 20th consecutive up day, the longest winning streak for any Nasdaq stock ever, as noted by ZH. The most shorted stocks were squeezed all week, adding to the bullish market sentiment.

With inflation rearing its ugly head again, will we see a repeat of the 1970s, or will this time be different?

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/13/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, February 13, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— since 11/21/2023

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.33% and is in “Buy” mode as posted.

Read More

Equities Climb As Traders Bet On Softer PCE Amid Trade Tensions

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Following yesterday’s hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers also exceeded expectations. The January PPI showed a 0.4% increase, surpassing the consensus of 0.3%. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.3%, aligning with estimates.

Despite these increases, traders pushed equities higher, reasoning that these latest figures suggest a softer Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index than feared. The PCE, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be updated tomorrow.

Global trade tensions remain a focal point as Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on imported goods from any country that imposes duties on U.S. imports. With India being a significant offender, this will make for an interesting meeting when Trump meets with India’s Prime Minister Modi.

In the end, bond yields tumbled, helping equities to rally, with the Mega-cap sector participating. However, U.S. Defense stocks declined following Trump’s comments about halving the defense budget.

The most shorted stocks rallied, supporting bullish sentiment, alongside the semiconductor sector. The dollar closed at a three-week low, which helped gold to bounce back.

Bitcoin slid but found support at $96,000, while crude oil experienced volatility but closed relatively unchanged.

After a choppy week, traders are eagerly anticipating tomorrow’s PCE release, which is expected to come in better than anticipated, potentially pushing bond yields lower and equity prices higher.

Will they be right?

Read More

Fed’s Stance On Inflation Confirmed As CPI Surpasses Expectations

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report confirmed to me that the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay rate cuts was an acknowledgment that inflation remains a persistent issue.

In January, the CPI rose by 0.5% for the month, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3%, surpassing expectations of 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.45% for the month and 3.26% over the past 12 months, also exceeding forecasts.

As a result, the 10-year bond yield surged by over 12 basis points to 4.66% early in the session, dampening expectations for rate cuts in 2025. With the CPI rising for seven consecutive months, can it still be considered transitory?

Equities experienced a sharp decline early on, with several mega-cap stocks such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet falling. Consumer and bank stocks also slid due to concerns over reduced spending and a slowing economy. However, the Nasdaq managed to recover to its starting point.

On a positive note, Meta has rallied now for 18 consecutive days, marking the longest winning streak of any Nasdaq stock ever, as highlighted by ZH. During this period, the company has added $300 billion to its market cap.

The dollar spiked early in the session but lost all gains by the end, while Bitcoin initially dropped but then rallied back above its $97,000 level. Gold followed a similar pattern, with its ETF eking out a small gain.

As we reach the second half of February, a period that is typically weak seasonally, could this time be different?

Read More

Gold Hits Record High, Markets Brace For Inflation Reports

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

This morning, equities went through a moderate retreat as traders absorbed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell.

He stated that “interest rates do not need to move quickly to ease monetary policy,” explaining that the Fed’s policy is now significantly less restrictive, reducing the urgency for adjustments.

Powell also described the economy as “strong overall” with a robust labor market, but he cautioned that, despite easing, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

The latest inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), are set to be released tomorrow and Thursday, respectively.

Throughout the session, the major indexes managed to recover their early losses, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting small gains, while the Nasdaq suffered a slight decline.

Stocks with the highest short interest lost their upward momentum and dropped sharply, while the Mega-cap tech sector traded sideways and ended nearly unchanged.

Rising bond yields added to the market’s challenges, negatively impacting the dollar. Bitcoin had a volatile day, initially rallying before reversing course and finding support at $95,000.

Meanwhile, gold continued to shine, hitting a new record high overnight before retreating towards the $2,900 level.

Overall, it was a session with minimal gains or losses, but with upcoming inflation figures, market momentum could shift quickly in either direction.

Read More

Traders Eye Key Economic Data As Major Indexes Reverse Course And Gold Shines

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After ending last week on a negative note, the major indexes reversed course this morning, with the Nasdaq leading a broad rally while the Dow lagged.

Despite this positive start, traders remain uncertain about inflation and the potential economic impact of Trump’s newly announced blanket 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, which took effect on Monday. Additionally, previously stated duties on China are set to go into effect today.

This week is packed with significant economic data releases, starting with the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, followed by preliminary weekly jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is also scheduled to address Congress tomorrow morning.

Crude oil prices surged over 2%, while the most shorted stocks provided a boost to equities but later retreated from their highs. The mega-cap tech sector continued its volatile trend, with today being an up day.

Bond yields were mixed, the dollar strengthened on Trump’s tariff announcement, and Bitcoin rebounded from the weekend’s weakness.

Gold continued its impressive performance, breaking solidly above $2,900 to reach a new record high and coming within striking distance of the $3,000 mark.

Can this magic level be reached this week?

Read More