ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 21, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

FROM BLEEDING RED TO FRIDAY GREEN – FED DOVES SAVE THE DAY

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Early on, things looked ugly—S&P and Nasdaq were still bleeding from Thursday’s epic Nvidia pump-and-dump, and the AI-valuation hangover was real.

Then Fed Governor John Williams (and a few other dove-ish voices) stepped up with some “we’re still cutting” vibes. Boom—December cut odds shot from 39% to over 70% in hours, and that was the spark the bulls needed.

Mid-session the mood flipped, buyers piled in, and we clawed our way from red to a solid green close. Nice little chunk of Thursday’s losses erased in one swoop.

Still, let’s keep it real: mega-cap tech just wrapped its third straight losing week, the most-shorted stocks bounced Friday but are still deep in the red for the week, and bitcoin got absolutely wrecked again—dipping to levels we haven’t seen since April before limping back toward $85K.

Liquidity’s tight, leveraged players are getting margin-called left and right, and it shows.

The quiet hero? Gold. Never flinched, closed the week comfortably above $4,000 after kissing $4,100 intraday. Right now, physical gold is straight-up embarrassing its digital cousin.

Bottom line: one good day doesn’t erase the bruises, but dovish Fed chatter gave the market exactly the lifeline it wanted.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/20/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, November 20, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +1.54% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

Read More

Nvidia Blew Out Earnings… Then The Market Blew Up Nvidia

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The morning started like a dream: Nvidia dropped an absolute monster quarter—beat earnings, smashed revenue, and gave guidance that had Jensen basically saying, “Blackwell demand is insane, no bubble here.”

The stock jumped 4% pre-market, the whole AI ecosystem lit up (AMD, Broadcom, Eaton—you name it), and everyone thought the AI bull was officially back in charge.

Then the September jobs report hit: 119K jobs added (better than feared), but the unemployment rate ticked higher.

That flipped the script—December rate-cut odds actually rose mid-session (traders love a little labor-market weakness). Everything looked golden… until it very much wasn’t.

By afternoon it turned into one of the nastiest reversals I’ve seen all year. Nasdaq swung a ridiculous 5% from high to low and never recovered. Mega-caps, retail darlings, pretty much everything got taken out back and spanked.

Nvidia closed down on the day—yes, you read that right—after being up double-digits intraday. Classic “pump it, dump it” move.

Bonds caught a safe-haven bid (yields dipped), bitcoin got crushed below $90K (lowest since April), and the dollar crept higher.

The only quiet winner? Gold—just sat there like a champ and closed basically flat in the middle of all that chaos.

Tomorrow we’ve got the biggest November options expiration ever—$3.1 trillion notional. Translation: seatbelts might still be required.

Read More

From Panic Sell To Last-Hour Buy – Classic 2025 Volatility

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

After four straight down days fueled by AI jitters, the S&P 500 finally flipped green, thanks to a 6% pop in Alphabet and traders piling back into the AI trade.

Nvidia added 3+% ahead of its big earnings drop after the bell today.

Everyone’s hoping the chip king smashes estimates and proves the AI hype is still alive and kicking—because the bar is sky-high and people have been taking profits left and right, worried the whole thing’s gotten too frothy.

The day was pure chaos: we opened with a buying frenzy, then flipped hard on the Fed minutes that showed a super-split FOMC — “many” want to pause in December, many don’t see tariff inflation… basically nobody agrees.

Markets pinballed all session, consolidated near flat, and then the last hour turned into a classic dip-buying party. Nasdaq led, the Mag 7 crushed it, and the majors all squeaked into the green.

Most-shorted stocks gave a quick boost early but handed it all back by the close.

Elsewhere: The dollar ripped higher, bond yields crept up, gold closed slightly green, silver did better, and copper stole the metals show with a clean 1% gain. Bitcoin tried to rally, got smacked, and bounced off $88K.

Now everything rides on Nvidia’s report this afternoon. One monster beat and guidance could calm the nerves and send us flying again… or a whiff and we’re right back in volatility city.

Read More

Gold & Silver Shine While Stocks Whine

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got hit again, and this time the culprit was clear: people are suddenly side eyeing those sky-high AI valuations.

Nvidia dropped another 2% (now down 10% this month) ahead of its big earnings on Wednesday, and the rest of the Magnificent 7 felt the heat too—Amazon and Microsoft both bled.

Bitcoin even dipped below $90K for a hot second, which felt like the market flashing a giant “risk-off” sign.

Outside of tech, Home Depot whiffed on earnings and slashed guidance, so that didn’t help the mood.

The three major indexes all closed red, with the S&P 500 now on a four-day losing streak. Small caps held up better than the Nasdaq (short squeeze magic), but everything still finished below their 50-day moving averages.

The December rate-cut odds have plunged from 90%+ a month ago to roughly 50-50 today, so the “Fed put” feels a little shaky. Bond yields were all over the place, and the dollar just kind of floated.

On the bright side, our portfolios still squeaked out a green day thanks to the shiny stuff: Gold bounced hard off the $4,000 level, silver jumped 1.4%, and bitcoin roared back after that brief dip (ETF outflows slowed, so the panic selling eased).

Bottom line? We’re stuck in this weird loop until we get some data that’s decent on growth but tame on inflation—basically the Goldilocks combo that calms stagflation worries and keeps the Fed cutting. Until then, it’s chop, chop, chop.

Read More

Tech Giants Weigh Down Majors As Key Levels Break

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks bounced around the flat line early in the day as investors braced for pivotal Nvidia earnings and the first jobs report since the government shutdown, but things turned south into the close as negative sentiment took over.

While Alphabet popped 5% on news that Berkshire Hathaway took a stake in the tech giant, it wasn’t enough to turn the tide for the broader market, with major averages breaking through key technical support and closing solidly in the red.

Many on Wall Street took comfort in Alphabet’s strength, viewing it as a vote of confidence in the AI narrative from Berkshire’s stock-picking crew, though Warren Buffett himself likely wasn’t behind the move.

Nvidia drifted lower ahead of its big report, and the rest of the artificial intelligence trade followed suit, as worries about stretched valuations lingered.

Rate cut odds for December slipped again after stronger-than-expected NY Manufacturing data and an uptick in construction spending.

The dollar bounced back, yields eased only slightly, and gold and silver both lost ground, with the yellow metal finding support around $4,000. Bitcoin kept falling, triggering a bearish “death cross” but, as history reminds us, that sometimes marks a bottom.

Will this gloomy tone reverse if Nvidia or the jobs data delivers a positive surprise, or are we in for another choppy ride as the year winds down?

Read More