Flat Trading Turns Sour After White House Chip Crackdown

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets treaded water today as investors played the waiting game ahead of some big news—most notably, Nvidia’s earnings report and the latest Fed meeting minutes.

Nvidia is set to report after the bell, and traders are watching closely, especially with growing concerns about how U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China might impact the AI giant. So far, demand for its powerful GPUs hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.

As for the Fed minutes? Pretty much a non-event. The language was vague, and there was no clear signal on what’s next for interest rates.

But just when it looked like the market might find its footing, news broke that the White House is pushing chipmakers to halt sales to China.

That sent a chill through the markets—stocks dipped, bond prices fell, gold and bitcoin slid, and the dollar was the only one left standing.

Now, all eyes are on Nvidia. Can its earnings turn things around tomorrow?

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Stocks Surge On Tariff Reprieve And Confidence Boost

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market’s back-and-forth news action continued, but this time stocks came out on top.

Over the weekend, Trump announced he’d delay 50% of the planned tariffs on European imports until July 9th—something the head of the European Commission had requested.

That news lit a fire under futures, and the momentum carried through the regular session as traders and algorithms piled in.

Consumer confidence also got a serious lift, jumping to 98.0—well above the expected 86.0. A more relaxed tone in U.S.-China trade talks likely helped boost the mood.

Looking ahead, earnings from Nvidia, Macy’s, and Costco are on deck. So far, over 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported, with 78% beating expectations—a solid showing.

Even with falling home prices and weak Durable Goods orders, the U.S. macro data finally had a “net good” day, according to ZeroHedge—the first in five weeks. Short sellers got squeezed, giving the broader market another push.

Bond yields dipped, with the 10-year falling nearly 7 basis points to 4.5%, and the 30-year sliding below 5%.

Meanwhile, the dollar rallied alongside stocks and bonds, which took some shine off gold—though it held support at $3,300. Bitcoin, after a shaky start, bounced back and reclaimed the $110K mark.

Trade policy is still a wild card, but for now, the Conference Board’s “Uncertainty” index took a sharp dive.

Could this be a turning point—or just another blip?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/23/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (131 vs. 159 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 23, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

MARKETS STUMBLE AS TRADE TENSIONS FLARE—GOLD AND BITCOIN SHINE

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets stumbled out of the gate today after President Trump reignited trade tensions with a pair of aggressive tariff threats.

He proposed a 25% levy on iPhones manufactured outside the U.S.—a direct shot at Apple—and floated a sweeping 50% tariff on European Union imports starting June 1. These remarks marked his first explicit move against a specific company and rattled investor confidence.

The tech sector bore the brunt of the sell-off, with Apple sliding over 3%. Other major players like Micron, Qualcomm, and Nvidia also declined in sympathy. The timing was especially jarring, coming just as markets had begun to recover from April’s downturn on hopes of easing trade tensions.

Trump’s comments dashed those hopes, casting doubt on the durability of the recent rebound. Treasury Secretary Bessent attempted to downplay the rhetoric, but the damage to sentiment may already be done.

On a brighter note, alternative assets provided a cushion. In my advisory practice, strong allocations to gold, silver, and bitcoin helped offset equity losses and kept portfolios balanced.

Bitcoin surged to a new high before pulling back slightly, supported by robust ETF inflows. Gold had its second-best week in six months, gaining 5% and closing at a record high, buoyed by a plunging dollar.

Bond yields ended the week mixed, and oil prices slipped.

As we head into the long holiday weekend, one question looms: 

Could this renewed trade aggression derail the fragile market recovery—or is it just more noise in an already volatile year?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 05/22/2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, May 22, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has now broken above and then below its long-term trend line (red) by -0.31% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Gold Fades, Bitcoin Swings As Markets Digest Massive Spending Package

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Early trading saw two of the major indexes fluctuating near their unchanged lines, while the Nasdaq stood out with a clear upward move, reflecting pockets of bullish sentiment.

The market’s attention was firmly on the passage of a sweeping tax and spending bill in the House, which aims to lower taxes and boost military spending but is projected to add trillions to the U.S. deficit over the next decade.

The 30-year bond yield responded by climbing to its highest level since October 2023, as investors weighed the implications of higher government borrowing and fiscal expansion.

The bill, which now heads to the Senate, has sparked debate among lawmakers and analysts. While some argue that the tax cuts and increased spending could offer a short-term boost to the economy, many warn that the resulting surge in deficits will likely stoke inflation and drive bond yields even higher, making bonds less attractive as an investment.

This uncertainty, combined with ongoing questions about the impact of tariff policies, contributed to early weakness in equities.

Midday, the indexes attempted a rebound but quickly hit resistance, with both the Dow and S&P 500 ending the session flat despite bond yields easing off their highs.

Gold’s initial rally faded by the close, while Bitcoin saw significant volatility—setting a record but falling short of the $112,000 mark.

As noted by ZeroHedge, much of the recent Bitcoin movement has been driven by institutional investors, with the retail crowd largely sitting on the sidelines. This dynamic raises a key question:

Can renewed retail participation be ignited again, or will institutions continue to dominate trading activity?

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