[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks bounced back today, helped by a strong rebound in Bitcoin and a solid move higher in big tech, as traders tried to shake off December’s shaky start.

The major indexes spent most of the day climbing, helped by renewed appetite for growth and AI names after Monday’s stumble.

Bitcoin surged throughout the session, wiping out the prior day’s losses and reinforcing its recent pattern of trading in step with rising odds of a December Fed rate cut.

AI-linked tech also did its part: Oracle reversed the previous session’s slide, Nvidia added nearly 2%, and AI infrastructure names like Credo Technology and Astera Labs ripped higher, with Credo jumping about 17% to a record and Astera tacking on roughly 6%.

Even so, this bounce comes after the major U.S. indexes snapped five-day win streaks on Monday, as persistent worries about sticky inflation, stretched valuations, and uncertain AI payoffs have kept a lid on enthusiasm.

Rate expectations remain a key driver: markets now see an almost 90%-plus chance of a cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, a big jump from mid-November, giving bulls a narrative to lean on even as the macro picture looks mixed.

Around the edges, bond yields eased a bit, the dollar dipped late in the day, and precious metals took a pause without breaking their uptrends.

Gold held above the 4,200 level, and silver, after being hit early, clawed back to finish above 58—keeping the “metals as quiet leaders” story intact for now.

With only a handful of data releases due tomorrow, and some of them fairly stale, the near-term tape may stay more focused on Fed odds, AI sentiment, and crypto’s mood swings than on the economic calendar.

With rate-cut hopes firming, AI names heating back up, and Bitcoin acting like a high-beta play on Fed expectations, the key question now is whether this rebound can build into a more durable December run—or if one more bout of anxiety will knock the rally off course again.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off December on the back foot, opening lower and taking their cues from another rough day in crypto as volatility rolled right into the final month of 2025.

Broadcom and Super Micro Computer dropped more than 3% and 2%, signaling more profit-taking in crowded artificial intelligence trades, while Synopsys jumped after Nvidia unveiled a new investment and partnership, helping Nvidia shares edge about 1% higher. 

Bitcoin slid more than 5% and broke back below $87,000, giving up its latest comeback attempt after already dipping under $90,000 late last month and struggling to reclaim that level.

That weakness came even as Wall Street is coming off a strong prior week, when the Dow and S&P 500 each gained over 3% and the Nasdaq rallied nearly 5%, partly repairing November’s damage that left the S&P 500 and Dow only modestly higher for the month while the Nasdaq fell about 1.5%, snapping a seven-month winning streak. 

Seasonals still look friendly: historically, December has been one of the better months for stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a bit more than a 1% gain and ranking as the benchmark’s third-strongest month going back to 1950.

Traders are leaning on that backdrop and the now near-universal expectation of a Fed rate cut next week, especially with recent soft economic data—like today’s drop in the ISM Manufacturing Index—adding to the case for easier policy even as bond yields popped higher in a bit of a “good news is bad news” twist. 

Overseas, the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish tone and rising odds of a December rate hike rattled funding markets and hit liquidity-sensitive trades, taking some of the air out of bitcoin’s recent bounce and knocking the crypto back to retest last week’s levels.

At the same time, the dollar swung around but finished roughly flat, gold chopped its way to a small gain, and silver stole the spotlight yet again, ripping through $58 to log a fresh record and remain one of the few reliable bright spots. 

So, as December storms out of the gate with more volatility and metals doing most of the heavy lifting for our diversified portfolios, the big question is whether this mix of strong seasonals, looming rate cuts, and AI crosscurrents will finally settle into a sustained year-end rally—or if choppy, headline-driven swings will keep ruling the tape right into New Year’s Eve.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks just refused to take a day off—fourth straight green session locked in, and we’re heading into Thanksgiving with some serious momentum.

The rally stayed nice and broad (not just the usual suspects), with Oracle jumping up 4%, Nvidia and Microsoft both +1%, and small caps plus Nasdaq leading the charge thanks to a juicy short squeeze.

The S&P 500 just posted its best 4-day run since late April—love that.

November’s little 4% dip now feels like ancient history (way shallower than the usual 10% correction), and dip-buyers are clearly still out in force.

Markets are pricing an 82%+ chance of a December rate cut, and Treasury Secretary Bessent just dropped that Trump might name the next Fed chair before Christmas—rumors point to Kevin Hassett, who’s seen as very dovish (aka lower rates, higher inflation… music to stock bulls’ ears).

Bond yields chilled, the dollar slipped, bitcoin blasted back above $90K, gold closed north of $4,150, and silver was the superstar with a nearly 4% pop past $53.

Bottom line: the market is screaming “give us that rate cut” and everything’s lining up for the classic year-end melt-up we’ve all been hoping for.

Wishing you all a fantastic Thanksgiving filled with family, food, and zero market drama! I’ll be back Monday with fresh commentary.

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The markets came in determined to bounce into Thanksgiving week, and the bulls actually delivered.

We opened strong and never really looked back—nice, steady grind higher all day. Alphabet was the star of the show, jumping 5% after Google dropped word of “Gemini 3” last week (their latest “we’re still in the AI race” flex).

That lit a fire under the whole mega-cap crew, and they dramatically outran the other 493 names in the S&P 500 by a mile.

The major indexes are trying to claw back some dignity after a rough November—S&P down 2%+ so far this month, Nasdaq off over 4%, Dow also bleeding.

But Friday’s rebound, sharply rising December rate-cut odds and a juicy short squeeze gave us the fuel to stay green today.

Bond yields slipped, the dollar just chilled, and the precious metals went nuts: gold surged 1.5%+ back above $4,100, silver ripped 2.9% past $51. Even bitcoin shook off the morning wobble, climbed over the weekend, and settled around $88K.

Volumes will get thin fast this week with everyone heading into turkey-coma mode, and there’s not much on the calendar until the Fed meeting in December… so expect some random air pockets.

Still, for now the vibe feels a lot better than it did a week ago.

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