[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Equities began the week sharply lower due to ongoing uncertainty in global trade talks. Adding to the market’s woes was President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell, who remains committed to high interest rate policies.

Some traders view Trump’s attacks as a threat to the Fed’s independence, while others criticize his delayed responses, such as calling inflation “transitory.”

Currently, we are witnessing a simultaneous decline in stocks, the dollar, and US Treasuries, which has primarily benefited gold. Bitcoin also appears poised for its next major move higher.

Given the lack of clarity in the market, my advisory practice is focusing on assets that clearly demonstrate bullish tendencies, while observing the equity bear market from the sidelines.

The Mag7 sector saw significant declines, led by tech giants Tesla (-6%) and Nvidia (-5%), with Amazon, AMD, and Meta experiencing smaller losses.

Bond yields edged higher, the dollar plunged, and China increased its gold purchases, driving the precious metal up by over 3% to a record high. US macroeconomic data weakened, with the Leading Indicator falling to a 9-year low, intensifying calls for rate cuts.

Bitcoin’s rally and decoupling from tech stocks may signal the resumption of its bullish trend, aligning with global liquidity movements.

Read More

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

An early bounce quickly faded, leading equities to slip into the red on the last trading day of the week. The S&P 500 was the exception, managing to eke out a fractional gain.

The Dow suffered the most, primarily due to United Health (UNH) plummeting by 22% at one point after missing earnings expectations. Chipmaker Nvidia also retreated, dropping another 3.7% following yesterday’s quarterly charge of $5.5 billion related to its graphics processing units.

Adding to the bearish sentiment was Fed Chair Powell’s stance on Trump’s tariff policies, which he believes could drive up inflation in the near term and “is likely to move us further away from our goals.”

This contrasts sharply with his decision to cut rates last year when financial conditions were looser, as opposed to the tightened conditions now. Perhaps Powell is focusing on the strength in hard data rather than the soft data that tumbled this week.

The major indexes closed out another week to the downside, with markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday. Since Liberation Day, the major indexes are still down 7-8%, while the Mega-cap sector has been down 8 of the last 9 weeks.

Bond yields ended the week lower, and the dollar tumbled for the third straight week to its lowest level since the first week of October, as noted by ZH. This decline benefited gold, which surged to record highs.

Bitcoin gained for the second straight week but remains stuck at its 50-day moving average for now. However, historical liquidity suggests it might be poised for another significant rise.

Enjoy the Easter weekend.

Read More

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Nvidia impacted the global tech market this morning by announcing a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to its graphics processing units sold to China and other nations. The stock dropped approximately 7% on the news, losing $270 billion in market cap.

Other chipmakers followed suit, moving lower. Big tech also felt the pressure, with the Mag7 index dropping around 2%, and stocks of Meta, Alphabet, and Tesla pulling back as well.

The major indexes were in retreat mode as traders continued to navigate rising global tensions, despite some levies being put on hold for 90 days. However, Chinese goods were not included in this pause, leading to increased market volatility.

Midday, it wasn’t tariff uncertainty but Fed Chair Powell who unsettled the markets with his responses to questions about intervention if the stock market plummets.

Powell stated, “No, markets are doing what they’re supposed to do, orderly…” and “Clearly there is some deleveraging by hedge funds going on; you will see continued volatility.” He also mentioned, “The economy will likely be ‘moving away’ from both of its goals probably for the balance of this year.”

These comments dampened any potential bullish sentiment and discouraged dip buyers. Even a last 30-minute buying spree did not change the outcome.

Bond yields dipped, and the dollar slipped to its lowest level since early October. Bitcoin suffered volatility, racing first to $85.5k and then back down to $83.5k, eking out a small gain.

Gold ended up being the star of the show, with the precious metal adding almost 3.5% for the session, its best day since October 2023, while setting a record.

In my advisor practice, gold has been a core holding since February 2022, allowing us to build a solid foundation to protect against uncertainty and inflation with a fairly high allocation percentage.

Read More

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The major indexes cautiously advanced early on as traders analyzed the latest earnings reports and enjoyed a decline in market volatility, indicated by a drop in the VIX.

Yesterday, tech stocks received a boost following revelations of exemptions from reciprocal tariffs for electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors. Even though later clarifications suggested these exemptions might be temporary, the bulls continued to push the indexes higher.

While equities are still recovering from losses incurred after Trump’s original tariff announcement, concerns persist that more headline-driven volatility could disrupt the current rebound at any time.

Ultimately, the initial short squeeze faded as anxiety grew, leading the major indexes to close moderately in the red, while the S&P 500 “death cross” remained in play.

The mega-cap sector continued its slide despite lower bond yields, but the dollar managed to eke out a modest gain. Bitcoin rallied to $86k before retreating to the $84k level, while gold ignored the dollar’s strength and climbed to around $3,250.

Interestingly, as ZH pointed out, SmallCaps have never been this low relative to the Nasdaq, yet the S&P 500 remains far from the prior valuation levels that marked a low.

Does this mean new lows are still on the horizon?

Read More

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Positive news on tariffs boosted the markets early on, as Trump’s unexpected tariff exemption for tech devices lifted equities alongside lower bond yields.

Smartphones, computers, and components like semiconductors were excluded from the new reciprocal levies, according to guidance issued last Friday. Tech giants such as Apple, Nvidia, Intel, and Dell saw significant gains, with the entire tech sector (XLK) rising by approximately 2%.

However, these exemptions are not permanent and may still be subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl tariffs, merely shifting to a different “tariff bucket.” Nonetheless, traders welcomed the news for the day.

Despite last week’s rally, the three major indexes remain sharply down since the reciprocal tariffs were announced, as uncertainty continues to influence the long-term trend.

Today saw another volatile session with an early bounce fading, but upward momentum returned, leading to a positive close. The last 10 minutes, however, experienced heavy selling pressure, as noted by ZH.

Additionally, the S&P 500 triggered a “death cross,” a bearish signal where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.

The Mega-cap sector posted moderate gains, bond yields retreated, and rate-cut expectations increased. The dollar and gold slipped moderately, while Bitcoin rallied above $85k despite some intraday volatility.

Will the upcoming earnings season help stabilize market volatility?

Read More