ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 22, 2025

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

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DOW HITS RECORD AFTER POWELL OPENS DOOR TO SEPTEMBER RATE CUT

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Today’s stock market breathed a sigh of relief after a tough week, led by a sharp rally sparked by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

The Dow Jones surged nearly 850 points to a fresh record close, while the S&P 500 climbed 1.5% and the Nasdaq rose about 1.9%. It’s my opinion Powell’s message opened the door to a possible interest-rate cut in September, which really energized investors.

The way I see it, Powell’s acknowledgment of the fragile balance between inflation and a weakening labor market gave traders reason to hope the Fed might ease soon—but he was cautious, stressing the need to wait for incoming data first. That blend of optimism and caution set the tone for today’s gains.

Bond yields eased off a bit today, which helped soothe pressure on stocks—especially the rate-sensitive sectors. Meanwhile, technology and the Mag 7 stocks bounced back with a nice lift after a rough few days earlier this week, showing some renewed faith in growth names.

The dollar crashed, adding further fuel to risk assets, while gold stayed pretty steady, stuck in its recent sideways groove. Interestingly, Bitcoin jumped about 4%, benefiting from the overall risk-on mood among investors.

I believe this rally is a welcome break, but the way I see it, investors are still watching Powell and upcoming data closely.

The big question remains: Is this the start of a sustained rally fueled by rate cuts, or just a short-lived relief rally before volatility returns?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/21/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 21, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +5.15% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Tech Titans Tumble, But Broader Market Holds Steady Ahead Of Powell

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks dropped together at the open, marking the fifth straight day of losses. Walmart slid about 4% after reporting its quarterly results—the company actually beat sales estimates, but its earnings came up short, leaving investors unimpressed.

All eyes are now on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who’s set to speak Friday at the big Jackson Hole economic symposium. Traders are hoping to get some clues on where interest rates are headed next. In fact, the market’s pricing in nearly an 80% chance the Fed will cut rates at its September meeting.

Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting revealed officials are keeping a close watch on both the job market and inflation. Most policymakers, though, think it’s not quite time to start cutting rates yet.

Tech stocks have been dragging the market lower this week—investors have been selling off their winners like Nvidia, Palantir, and Meta, and the Nasdaq has dropped about 2.1% so far. But, surprisingly, the rest of the market has held up pretty well.

Meanwhile, bond yields pushed higher throughout the day, which didn’t do gold or Bitcoin any favors—gold’s just drifting sideways, and Bitcoin’s feeling the pressure too.

With Powell’s speech just around the corner, the big question is: Will the Fed shake things up and give the market a reason to rally, or are we in for more of the same?

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Mag7 Stocks Out Of Favor As Traders Eye Powell’s Next Move

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Wall Street got off to a rocky start today, with major indexes slipping again. Tech stocks took a hit for the second straight day, dragging the market lower as traders kept a close eye on mixed retail earnings and anticipated the latest word from the Federal Reserve.

Investors kept cashing out of big-name tech and chip stocks, worried about whether those high price tags—and the AI frenzy backing them—have maybe gone a bit too far.

Nvidia slumped around 3%, while AMD and Broadcom lost more than 3.5%. Over in software and semis, Palantir slid 5.5% and Intel dropped over 6%. Even the mega-cap crew—Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta—couldn’t find any traction.

On the retail front, Target’s stock tanked over 8% (the S&P 500’s biggest loser of the day) after reporting yet another sales drop and announcing a new CEO starting Feb. 1. Lowe’s, on the other hand, got a little love when its earnings beat estimates.

While traders scooped up some classic retail favorites, no one wanted to touch the so-called “Mag7” tech heavyweights, sending that group sharply lower. Despite the tech slump, the overall market stayed relatively steady.

Bond yields edged down, the dollar pulled back, and gold caught a bid—rising 1% as dip buyers swooped in. Bitcoin bounced back above $114,000 after taking a beating lately, suggesting it might have hit bottom.

But you could almost forget all that—because at the end of the day, everyone’s just waiting to see what Fed Chair Powell will say after Friday’s big symposium in Wyoming.

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Mag7 Tumble Again As Wall Street Braces For Fed Signals

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The market was a mixed bag at the open, with the Dow standing out while everyone else treaded water as traders digested new earnings from major retailers and looked ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated speech later this week.

Home Depot shares popped 2%—even though its second-quarter results missed expectations, investors were happy the company left its full-year outlook unchanged.

The rest of the retail crew—Lowe’s, Walmart, and Target—are in the spotlight as earnings continue to roll in, with investors eager for any clues about the health of the U.S. consumer, especially with inflation and trade policy still in flux.

The real buzz, though, is all about the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole gathering. There’s plenty of wishful thinking that Powell’s Friday speech could be a game changer, with many hoping he’ll hint at a rate cut for September.

Despite the early promise, tech stocks weighed heavily on the indexes, and everything finished in the red.

The Dow has actually been beating the Nasdaq for four of the last five days—a trend mirrored by the Mag7 stocks, which have pulled back sharply this week. The most shorted stocks got slammed.

The dollar bounced back after some ups and downs, bond yields dipped, gold slipped for a fourth straight session, and bitcoin fell toward three-week lows after last week’s fireworks.

With everyone now hanging on Powell’s upcoming words, will he deliver the bullish news traders are hoping for, or will the bears get the upper hand?

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Markets Hit Pause As Traders Await Retail Earnings And Fed Signals

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

It was a pretty uneventful Monday on Wall Street as the major indexes mostly hovered near the flat line. After a strong run last week, traders seemed content to take a breather while they wait for some big retail earnings, updates on Ukraine, and—most of all—a speech from Fed Chair Powell later this week.

All eyes are on results from retail heavyweights like Home Depot, Lowe’s, Walmart, and Target. These reports are expected to provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. consumer.

There’s also plenty of Fed-watching going on, as central bankers head to Jackson Hole for their big annual meetup. Traders are looking for any clues about what’s next for interest rates, and the odds of a rate cut at the September meeting are now hovering around 85%.

The indexes are coming off two solid weeks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up in four of the last five weeks. Small caps stole the show last week as traders kept betting on a friendlier Fed.

On the housing front, homebuyer confidence remains stuck at rock-bottom, and homebuilder sentiment just dropped to lows not seen since the early days of the pandemic. Despite that, homebuilders still seem to be in a better spot than the buyers themselves, at least for now.

Today’s short squeeze mostly gave a lift to small caps. Bond yields ticked up a bit, the dollar bounced off Friday’s dip, and gold slipped just a hair. Bitcoin, which smashed through $124,000 last week, cooled off but built a solid base around the $116,000 mark.

With the final weeks of summer here and traders glued to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday, will markets stay in cruise control, or are we in for a surprise as the headlines roll in?

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